Coalition govt likely in Japan

The Japanese General Election this coming weekend seems to have resulted in a kind of political inflation with "too many candidates chasing too few seats", according to this analysis of Japan's reformed electoral system by our correspondent Harvey Stockwin.

HONG KONG (JP): As the all-too-brief Japanese general election campaign reaches its climax, another coalition government is inevitable in Tokyo, even if the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wins a slim overall majority on the basis of a minority vote.

The current general election is the first to take place after the reform measures passed by the government of former prime minister Morihiro Hosokawa in 1994, after the LDP had lost its majority in the 1993 general election for the first time since 1955.

As a result of those reforms, 129 multi-member constituencies, returning between two and six MPs each, and a total of 511 members in all, were abolished.

They have been replaced by 300 single-seat constituencies plus 200 seats which will be won on the basis of proportional representation in eleven regions nationwide. This time the strength of the new House of Representatives will be reduced to 500 members.

While some candidates have been nursing their new and smaller constituencies for several months, the rules have allowed only a miserly twelve days for official campaigning, which started on Oct. 8 and ends at midnight on Oct. 19. This appears to be wholly inadequate, given the need of the electorate to acquaint themselves with the new choices now available to them.

Under the old system each voter had only one vote, but under the new system each voter has two -- one to elect a member in their constituency, and one for the party of their choice in the regional proportional representation.

To add to the complexity now facing voters when they arrive in the polling booth on Oct. 20, there are only three parties contesting this election under the same name as they contested in 1993. These are the LDP, its coalition partner Shinto Sakigake (New Pioneer Party), and the Japan Communist Party (JCP).

Last time, the Japan Socialist Party had only changed its name in English but now it has got around to changing it in Japanese as well, to that of the Social Democratic Party of Japan (SDPJ).

Last time, the main opposition party was Shinseito, composed mainly of defectors from the LDP. Now Shinseito has broadened into Shinshinto or the New Frontier Party.

Last time, the recently formed Japan New Party, led by Hosokawa, attracted a lot of attention and votes. This time, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) or Minshuto, has just been formed and is attracting a lot of media attention.

One theory behind the 1994 reforms was that they would assist in the speedier development of a two-party system. Small parties, which until then could always hope to win one place in a multi- member seat on a minority vote, would not have a chance in the single-member seats, and so would be forced to amalgamate with the larger parties. With a two-party system, it was calculated, governments would change at election time, and the experience of the 38 years of one-party rule by the LDP 1955-1993 would not be repeated.

So far, the theory appears to be wrong. A further extension of LDP rule appears in the offing.

The advent of single-member seats has not discouraged the Democratic Reform Party, the Liberal League and the New Socialist Party, plus some even smaller minor parties, from putting forward a total of 157 candidates. The Liberal League and the New Socialist Party are particularly attracted by the chance of winning some seats under the proportional representation system.

Far from amalgamating, the numerous political parties are still breaking up. The two coalition partners of the LDP in the present government, the SDPJ and Sakigake, are still contesting as separate entities. Yet both suffered from sizable defections of their already depleted parliamentary strength when Minshuto was formed at the end of September.

Far from setting the stage for a contest mainly between two parties, a massive 1,261 candidates have put themselves forward for the 300 single-member seats, an average of over four candidates per seat.

Altogether, the 1996 Japanese General Election looks like too many candidates chasing too few seats. The candidates themselves are obviously uncertain how the reformed system will work, so no less than 567 of them are running both in a constituency and also on the proportional representations lists.

Given all these developments, it is a disappointment that so little time has been given to the campaigning. The electorate needs to sort out the complex changes and choices now before it.

Even before the election was announced it was inevitable that the next government would have to be a coalition to some extent. This is because neither the LDP nor the Shinshinto -- the two largest parties in the dissolved House -- have a majority in the upper House of Councillors. Any incoming government will require a majority in the upper house to ensure the smooth passage of legislation.

But many observers assume that a coalition will also be needed because no single party will win a majority of the seats in the new House of Representatives. Even as the electioneering continues, there is a good deal of speculation as to who will be teaming up with whom -- the stress being frequently on personalities rather than parties and policies.

Yet if the current opinion polls are any guide, there would seem to be a real possibility that the LDP might so dominate under the "reformed" system that it could win a majority all on its own.

Most opinion polls show voter approval of the LDP running at three to four times that of any other party. But the LDP does not currently enjoy an approval rating of over fifty percent. So in the single seat constituencies plus proportional representation, these public opinion polls would translate into the LDP winning a lower house majority after securing a minority of total votes.

While such a result is possible, other factors must be born in mind. Public opinion polls have not yet demonstrated a reliable track record in Japan. A clear and consistent correlation between polls and actual voting habits, such as now exists in the U.S. and some European democracies, has not yet been established in Japan.

The latest opinion polls still seem to ask questions better geared to the old electoral multi-member constituency system, rather than the new system of one vote for a candidate and one vote for a party. The voters, in any event, are more likely to be thinking in terms of local personalities rather than of a party when they vote in the proportional representation. Finally, the opinion polls themselves indicate a significant percentage of "don't knows" "undecideds" or people who are confused by the new system.

So the need, after next Sunday, for coalition-building in the House of Representatives as well as in the House of Councillors, with the LDP taking the lead, currently still seems the more likely result.