Clueless in the south of Thailand

The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

The Thaksin administration apparently still cannot make up its mind about what to do about the spate of well-coordinated attacks since March in the South that have claimed the lives of 12 police officers and left scores of others injured.

In the latest incidents over the past two weeks, a forestry office and an Army outpost in Yala came under attack while bombs exploded at two district offices in Narathiwat. Such acts of violence have terrorized people and raised questions about a breakdown of law and order in Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Satun.

The perpetrators clearly intend to defy the government's authority to rule and to intimidate local people into submission.

Different security agencies have different theories and their own "usual suspects" for the violence in the Muslim-majority provinces in the South. Government agencies charged with the responsibility to keep peace and security in the four southernmost provinces have routinely denied that these incidents had anything to do with Muslim guerrillas fighting to establish an Islamic homeland.

Security officials argue, as they always have, that splinter groups of armed separatists have become too weak to mount such daring attacks. They point out that separatist fighters are no longer popular among local residents whose support they sorely need to put up an armed struggle against the authorities.

One of the more fanciful theories has it that most, if not all, acts of violence in the four southern provinces have been committed by "disaffected elements", including police officers or local crime bosses, who perpetuate a cycle of violence in order to discredit senior police officers responsible for law and order in the region.

These oft-repeated explanations and excuses seem to have developed a life of their own and to have even gained some credibility after repeated use.

But to write off the decades-old secessionist aspirations among the predominantly Malay population and to deny that the problem exists will not make it go away.

Occasional bombs continue to explode in public places, causing death, injury and property damage, and policemen continue to be attacked by gunmen. Not a single suspect has been arrested in connection with any of these attacks.

Even more baffling is the government's recent move to do away with the joint police-military taskforce charged with ensuring security in the four provinces even as violent incidents continue to intensify. Now, only lightly-armed police have been assigned to take the responsibility on their own.

The Southern Border Provinces Administrative Center, charged with the task of coordinating political, social and economic efforts by all government agencies to bring peace and prosperity to the region, has over the years made considerable progress to win the hearts and minds of the local people. But the center has also been scrapped recently.

Defense Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh said a few days ago that he suspected major terrorist attacks were in the offing because of intelligence reports indicating unusual movement of armed groups in the southern provinces. The next day Chavalit urged security officials in the South not to "overreact".

National Police Chief Sant Sarutanond said the incidents could be attributed to internal conflicts among officials of security agencies in the southern provinces.

Lack of leadership is evident in the government effort to restore peace and security in the southernmost provinces. Therefore state agencies involved in ensuring security have been working against one another instead of coordinating their efforts to achieve common objectives.

The government has been in denial for far too long. Failure to act decisively to stamp out terrorist attacks in the southern provinces could encourage the perpetrators to widen and intensify their devious operations.