Cloudy future seen for Nepal's ruling party

By Kedar Man Singh

KATHMANDU (AFP): The decision by Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Bhattarai to step down to avoid a no-confidence motion from within his ruling Nepali Congress (NC) may have papered over cracks in the ruling party, but the divide remains, according to analysts.

A series of frantic meetings recently between Bhattarai and NC president G.P. Koirala wrung out a compromise which allowed the no-confidence motion, registered by 58 of the party's 113 MPs, to be set aside.

The deal was simple. Bhattarai agreed to step down within a few days of March 1, when the king has summoned the winter session of parliament.

In return Koirala, who has been critical of Bhattarai and increasingly active in moves to oust the prime minister, agreed to make disgruntled parliamentarians withdraw the no-confidence move.

"Mutual agreement on these two points between Koirala and Bhattarai constitutes a gain, at least, for the ruling NC because, in the reverse case, the country's foremost party would have suffered irreparable damage," Chief Whip Gopal Man Shrestha said.

"Continuation of differences between the two leaders could have possibly broken up the party bringing in its trail inevitable repercussions on the multi-party system itself."

But while the deal, brokered by a powerful NC lobby including Deputy Prime Minister Ram Chandra Paudyel and former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, patched over the wounds for the good of the party, the split between Bhattarai and Koirala remains.

The no-confidence motion drove a wedge between the two "old guards" of the NC, and the prospect of a flare-up before the winter session ends in six weeks remains.

"It's a temporary truce between two sides at war with each other," one political observer said, raising doubts about Koirala being the perfect replacement.

"For all his weaknesses, including his sagging health, the incumbent prime minister has not wholly lost his hold on the NC."

When Bhattarai steps down he is expected to mount a challenge to be party president, creating renewed tension between his supporters and the Koirala camp.

"Such a situation bodes fresh ill for the NC," party youth leader Prasant Thakur said.

Koirala meanwhile faces the immediate challenge of appeasing the 58 MPs who signed the no-confidence motion as well as the 11 cabinet ministers who resigned from their posts last week.

"The prospective new prime minister cannot take all of them into his cabinet, although they are sure to clamor for a berth as a reward for doing his bidding to challenge Bhattarai," prominent journalist G.B. Pradhan said.

"The party president's step of forcing Bhattarai out is sure to trigger a chain of counter-reactions", he said.

NC youth leader Thakur said an early poll, four years ahead of the next scheduled election, could not be ruled out if Koirala found himself like Bhattarai unable to command strong support within the government.

Ready to exploit any political instability are parties on the extreme right and extreme left -- in the shape of the Nepal Communist Party-Maoist -- which is bent on disrupting the country's hard-won multi-party democratic system, analysts said.

The current multi-party system was only introduced in 1990 after a popular movement overthrew 30 years of supreme rule by the monarchy.

Bhattarai still commands wide respect for his role in the pro- democracy movement and as interim premier during the transition.

Koirala was prime minister heading into the last election nine months ago, but with falling popularity he agreed to hand the reins over to Bhattarai who led the NC to a simple majority of 113 MPs in the 205-seat parliament.