Close race expected in election runoff, survey shows

Fabiola Desy Unidjaja and M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

With only three weeks to go until the election runoff, a pollster revealed on Wednesday the two candidates would face an uphill battle to win the presidency, according to the latest approval ratings from electorates.

The Jakarta-based Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated (SSS) found 41.3 percent of respondents would vote for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Sept. 20, against 34.68 percent who preferred incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri.

The possibility of Megawati winning the runoff would be greater if the political machines of the four parties grouped in the Nationhood Coalition could work effectively, it added.

"With such a close margin -- only six percent -- Megawati's chance of winning is greater, while Susilo's camp would have to work hard to maintain its lead," SSS researcher Sukardi Rinakit said.

The SSS interviewed 5,000 respondents in 17 of the country's 32 provinces between Aug. 14 and Aug. 26, and rates its margin of error at 1.4 percent.

The poll discovered that aside from a favorable response from 91.59 percent of Democratic Party supporters, 41.53 percent of those who voted for Golkar Party candidate Gen. (ret) Wiranto in the July 5 presidential election said they would vote for Susilo.

"A considerable portion of Wiranto's supporters, or 34.41 percent, will cast their ballots for Megawati and Hasyim Muzadi in the runoff," the survey said.

As for Megawati, apart from a 89.61 percent endorsement from her constituents, 54.07 percent of those who voted for United Development Party (PPP) candidate Hamzah Haz on July 5 favored her reelection.

However, Susilo still has greater support from members of other political parties: 44.07 percent from Golkar, 45.08 percent from the National Awakening Party (PKB) and 52.19 percent from the Crescent Star Party (PBB).

Meanwhile, the poll found that 59.79 percent of the National Mandate Party (PAN) would abstain.

With such a close race, the likelihood of clashes erupting between supporters of the rival candidates was greater, and party leaders would need to control their supporters to prevent possible violence, the SSS recommended.

Separately on Wednesday, another Jakarta-based pollster, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), painted a different picture of the Sept. 20 runoff.

In its latest survey, covering 1,200 respondents in all 32 provinces from Aug. 23 to Aug. 25, the LSI found 61.1 percent of respondents would vote for Susilo, as opposed to 30.3 percent who favored the incumbent President.

The margin of error is 3 percent.

Megawati's standing had improved slightly against an earlier survey, in which 68.1 percent of respondents favored Susilo, with only 23.3 percent preferring Megawati.

Results of the latest LSI survey also underscored that supporters were not swayed by their parties' preferences.

"Only around 4 percent of Golkar supporters (who preferred other candidates) changed their minds (to favor Megawati), despite their party's instruction to vote for Megawati in the runoff. The figure is 8 percent for PPP supporters," LSI research director Muhammad Qodari said.