Clinton's half victory

The greatest show of democracy on earth ended pretty much the way it has been predicted. Americans overwhelmingly voted to return incumbent President Bill Clinton to the White House. Clinton did not have everything his way, though. Victory in the routing of his Republican challenger Bob Dole was spoilt by the Democrats failure to wrest back control of Congress. Both the House of Representatives and the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans, at least until midterm elections in 1998.

The mandate American voters gave to Clinton, therefore, is not a full one. He will have to share power with the Republican- controlled Congress as he has done for the last two years. In spite of the conciliatory tone of Clinton's victory speech calling for a unified stand, the Republicans are sending exactly the opposite message as they lick their wounds.

Under House Speaker Newt Gringrich, Republican members of Congress promise to give Clinton an even harder time than he has had these past two years, not only by blocking his programs, but also by delving into fresh allegations of impropriety.

Republicans may have failed to dent Clinton's reelection chances by accusing him of illegally taking foreign contributions during the campaign, but their candidate's defeat is all the more reason for them to nail him on this issue.

We certainly have not heard the last of what has been dubbed by the American press during the campaign as the "Indonesian Connection" or the "Riyadi Connection", so-named after the Indonesian businessman who contributed huge sums of money to Clinton's election coffers.

What is also certain is that we will see more and more occurrences of political gridlock in Washington that are bound to affect not only the administration's domestic programs, but also its foreign policy. The kind of power sharing we have seen in Washington these last two years is one in which very few things got done. Various programs and proposals, such as budget deficit cuts and welfare reforms, were shot down in the midst of Washington politics. We have seen what a Republican-controlled Congress could do to frustrate the administration, and we will no doubt see a lot more of that in the coming years.

Americans have made their democratic choice in installing a divided government in Washington, but they will not be the only ones to feel the impact. The ripples go beyond American borders. For one thing, Clinton will not be able to provide an effective leadership that is required of a superpower country.

One definitely positive sign coming out of the election is that at last, the administration can really get down to business, particularly in foreign policy. Clinton's election worries these past few months have put many international issues virtually on hold. In regards to the Middle East, for example, even with the half mandate, Clinton will no longer have to worry about the strong Jewish lobby, and can exert more pressure on Israel to return to the peace negotiations. The United States also has some unfinished business in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Then there is the issue of the future the United Nations secretary-general, the debate of which has been delayed until after the election. Hopefully, on foreign policy, Clinton and the Republicans can forge unity.

For Indonesia, Clinton's reelection means continuity in present bilateral relations. One of the benefits of seeing an incumbent reelected is familiarity. Given the growing relations between the two countries in the past four years, we can expect the trend to continue.

There are, however, some points to note. Clinton, no longer inhibited by reelection worries, is bound to be more assertive and will stand more firmly on his principles. On Indonesia-U.S. relations, this means he will likely be more firm on the question of human rights and East Timor, two issues that have gotten in the way of our relations. This time, we shouldn't expect too much sympathy or support from Republican friends in Congress. With Gringrich going around accusing the Riyadi campaign contribution of compromising Clinton's human rights principles, the Republican-controlled Congress is likely to look less favorably on Indonesia than it has been in the past.