Clinton Middle East peace doomed by violence?

By Paul Taylor

LONDON (Reuters): U.S. President Bill Clinton's bid to salvage shattered Israeli-Palestinian peace in his last weeks in office appears increasingly doomed by a self-perpetuating cycle of violence and reprisals.

Time is running out but aides say Clinton will not give up without a fight and will continue to work for a deal in the lame- duck period until his successor takes office on Jan. 20.

Western diplomats say Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian President Yasser Arafat have both told him they are willing in principle to resume intensive negotiations for a final peace settlement that eluded them at Camp David in July.

"The problem is that all efforts to revive negotiations are predicated on a reduction in the violence and that looks increasingly like wishful thinking," a Western diplomat said.

The escalating use of force by both sides in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the radicalization of Israeli and Palestinian public opinion, the weakness of Barak's minority government and Arafat's ambiguity towards violence are all working against peace efforts.

Some diplomats believe that since Barak's political survival ultimately hinges on progress in the peace process, he will have to go to a summit even if the violence does not stop but only abates slightly. But even that looks hard to achieve.

Compounding the problem, the Palestinians and Arab and Muslim leaders say the United States has lost all credibility as sole mediator because of its perceived bias towards Israel.

One veteran of past U.S. Middle East peace efforts, former assistant secretary of state Richard Murphy, says Washington may need to involve other players such as UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and European Union foreign affairs chief Javier Solana in any negotiations.

"The American role is going to remain vital, but conceivably the time has come for others to play a role," Murphy told Britain's Royal Institute of International Affairs.

Clinton and Barak are both far weaker than they were at Camp David. The U.S. leader has barely two months left in office and seems likely to be succeeded by Republican George W. Bush rather than his chosen successor Vice President Al Gore.

Despite their public grumbling at American bias towards Israel, Arafat and Arab leaders told Annan in private meetings in Qatar this week they had not lost faith in Clinton's personal determination to achieve progress before his term ends.

Barak's government could be toppled by a parliamentary no- confidence vote within weeks, forcing him into an election against a resurgent hardline Likud opposition that is strengthened by each day of worsening violence.

"Israeli policy has shown an inconsistency verging on incoherence in the last few weeks of crisis," said Israeli political analyst Mark Heller. "The prime minister's position often seems erratic and inconsistent because of domestic politics and the need to react to events."

Barak has zig-zagged between dismissing Arafat as a peace partner and saying peace is still possible, between issuing ultimatums and backing off, and between using spectacular force to retaliate for Palestinian attacks and seeking to avoid being sucked into escalation.

He was back in gloom mode on Thursday, saying of the prospects of a three-way peace summit with Arafat and Clinton: "We are not even close."

Although the vast majority of the 228 dead since Sept. 29 have been Palestinians, many of them teenagers, Israelis are incensed by the deaths of soldiers and Jewish settlers and are pressing for tougher action.

Barak's problems have prompted some Palestinian officials privately to write off any prospect of reaching an acceptable peace deal with him and conclude that only an intensified Intifada (uprising) will force Israel out of the West Bank.

But Arafat held out hope on Thursday of an agreement with Barak before Clinton leaves office, saying: "We are hoping so, not to forget that President Clinton is insisting to achieve something before his departure."

The renewed uprising has strengthened Arafat's position with the Palestinian public and in the Arab and Muslim world but made it even harder for him to make any compromises for peace than it was when he rejected Israel's offer at Camp David.

"Arafat has surfed on the wave of the Intifada, but his hands are increasingly tied by the hard men in the streets. That has forced him to take a hard line," a European diplomat observed.

In recent weeks, the Palestinians have revived demands that many Western diplomats see as unrealistic.

These include international protection from peacekeepers or observers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the involvement of outside powers such as Russia and China in the peace process, the right of return for all Palestinian refugees to Israel, and a total Israeli withdrawal from land captured in 1967.

Most Israeli and Western analysts believe it would be hard for Barak to concede more at a peace summit than he had been prepared to give at Camp David, because Israeli public opinion has hardened since then due to the violence.

But one Western diplomat close to the talks said he believed Barak could still give more on Palestinian sovereignty in Arab East Jerusalem, including the key holy site revered by Muslims as the Haram al-Sharif (Noble Sanctuary) and by Jews as Temple Mount, if that were the ultimate price for peace.