Clinton, Boris cruise to next millennium

By Gwynne Dyer

LONDON (JP): Two world leaders got a new lease on life last week. U.S. President Bill Clinton won another four years in office thanks to the voters, and Russian President Boris Yeltsin, will probably have another four years in office thanks to the skill of his doctors.

In their first terms it was Boris Yeltsin who had the truly terrifying roller-coaster ride, while Bill Clinton suffered little more than a brief spell of sulking in the shade of Newt Gingrich's 15 minutes of fame.

Most observers assume that the two men's second terms will follow the same pattern: a sedate cruise towards the millennium celebrations for Bill Clinton, while Boris Yeltsin reels from one crisis to the next. But it ain't necessarily so.

Yeltsin's first term was like a modern-day version of the old silent-film serial The Perils of Pauline. At the end of each episode there he was, tied to the tracks again, while the villain (Khasbulatov, Rutskoi, Zhirinovsky, Zyuganov, Lebed) twirled his moustache triumphantly and the locomotive thundered ever closer.

Fade to black, we went out to buy some popcorn, and by the time we got back in the theater the usual miracle had occurred. With a single bound our hero was free -- to stumble towards the next crisis. He always survives, but it's never over.

And why would we believe that things are going to be different in his second term? Russia is brimming with problems, from long- unpaid soldiery to a chronic inability to collect taxes to a war in Chechnya that may or may not be really over. As for Yeltsin, he is the same ham-fisted drunk he always was. The funniest post-operative remark about Yeltsin came from Dr. Michael DeBakey, the Texas surgeon who pioneered heart-bypass techniques in the 1960s and supervised Yeltsin's operation. "The best I can assess it is that he drinks socially," opined DeBakey. "He's not an alcoholic, and his liver function is perfectly normal. He's not an excessive drinker."

I haven't seen Boris Yeltsin's liver, but like most journalists who spent time in Moscow I have seen him knee-walking drunk on occasion. He is not exceptionally bright, he is a bully, and the only time he is not scheming is when he is sleeping.

But that is not a bad leadership style for contemporary Russia, which is in the midst of a very difficult transition. Indeed, once Yeltsin is fully recovered and back in harness (which could be as early as January), his second term may turn out to be a lot smoother than his first.

For one thing, the peace in Chechnya is likely to survive. "The agreement has been signed and every letter of it must be fulfilled," said Ivan Rybkin, who replaced Alexander Lebed as chief peace negotiator with the Chechens after the latter was dismissed, on Oct. 27. The Russian troop pull-out continues, and the thorny final question of Chechnya's formal independence has been postponed for five years -- well past the next Russian presidential election.

The economy will take a long time to turn around, and Yeltsin's pre-election spending spree hasn't helped. But the legendary Russian patience in the face of economic hardship continues, and by four years from now, with luck, things could be getting much better on this front, too. Yeltsin may be able to greet the new millennium with a smile.

And how about Bill Clinton? Will he be heading into a long and happy retirement amid the plaudits of a grateful nation? That remains to be seen, because Clinton's second term may turn out to be a bit rockier than it now looks.

Domestically he has nothing very large or controversial planned. Now that the election is over he must address the question of extending the time American troops remain in Bosnia, and next year there will be sensitive decisions over the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe. Compared to other presidents' problems, however, all this does not amount to a very tall hill of beans.

Moreover, the 'sleeper' issues that could know everybody's calculations into a cocked hat, like runaway global warming or an absolute grain shortage worldwide, are mostly on timetables that are unlikely to disturb Clinton's presidency. As for the risk of major international aggression that could draw in the United States, it is infinitesimal.

But there is one scheduled 'surprise' that could make the latter half of Clinton's term very difficult. Just over two years from now, most of the larger countries of the European Union are pledged to introduce a new common currency, the euro. As soon as it appears, it will become the hardest major currency in the world.

At the moment, these European countries, with a total population about equal to that of the United States, have to maintain foreign currency reserves four times as big as the U.S., because they must defend all their various currencies from assaults by speculators. They hold most of those foreign currency reserves, of course, in U.S. dollars.

But as soon as the euro appears, they will unload huge amounts of those dollars -- and most other major countries will be dumping dollars too, as they seek to diversify their own foreign exchange holdings by transferring a large chunk of them into euros. The result could knock 10 to 15 percent off the value of the dollar against other major currencies.

In the long run, this would just enhance American competitiveness in the global market -- but in the short run, it could be a nightmare for Bill Clinton. The economic hurricane would still not have blown out by the end of Clinton's term.

Of course, Clinton could get lucky, and the Europeans might have to postpone the introduction of the new currency until 1999 or beyond. Indeed, given his seemingly boundless luck so far, that probably will happen. Life, as Bob Dole remarked, is unfair.