Chuan down but not out after ally quits

By Vithoon Amorn

BANGKOK (Reuters): The political demise of Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai's key strategist has shaken Thailand's government but analysts cautioned against any hasty conclusion that it represents a fatal blow for the ruling Democrat Party.

Former Interior Minister Sanan Kachornprasart on Thursday stepped down as secretary general of the Democrat Party after 12 years in the job as Chuan's political fixer.

Sanan was forced to quit politics after the Constitutional Court upheld an earlier verdict by the National Counter- Corruption Committee (NCCC) that he had filed inaccurate personal asset statements in 1997 and 1998.

The court decision meant the veteran politician is barred from running for public office for five years.

Sanan, 64, was widely credited for helping Chuan form coalition governments in 1992 and 1997. The prime minister will need to call a general election by mid-November.

"His departure raises a question on whether the Democrats can find an equally capable replacement, without whom there would be less chance for the party to return as the core of the next government," said senior analyst Supavud Saicheua at Merrill Lynch Phatra.

Supavud said Sanan's exit spawned speculation on whether a few dozen Democrats loyal to him may switch to other parties, and whether the party's efforts to recruit more supporters would be disrupted. He said there was no obvious replacement for Sanan.

"I still don't see a good obvious choice," Supavud said.

Somjai Phagaphasviwat at Bangkok's Thammasat University said he expected few party defectors. He believed the Democrats would seek to confine the damage from Sanan's case by smoothly finding a successor.

Among those tipped to replace Sanan is Banyat Bantadtan who took over the interior ministerial job in April.

"I think for the Democrats, the worst is already over. The most damage was done earlier (in late March) when the initial NCCC decision against Sanan was announced," Somjai said.

"Sanan's departure is, in a way, a blessing in disguise for the Democrats. It gets rid of an issue used by opposition parties to attack them. I think the final damage for the party would be smaller than expected."

Somjai conceded, however, that it would not be easy for the Democrats to find a new party manager who could match Sanan's political maneuvering skills.

Other analysts pointed out that Chuan had lost his political strategist at a time when his government's popularity was on the decline due to Thailand's lingering economic crisis.

They said it was still too early to say whether Chuan's setbacks would pave the way for his front-running rival, telecoms tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, to beat him in the next election.

In an editorial on Friday, the Bangkok Post praised the Constitutional Court for "handling a high-profile, politicized case under enormous political and social pressure while maintaining its professionalism".

"If this had not been the case, irreparable damage could have been done to the political reform effort whatever the verdict," it said.

The newspaper said Sanan's resignation was a major blow for Chuan.

"Having lost their secretary-general in such a manner, at a time when their popularity is already at its lowest ebb, the Democrats have all but lost the next election and Mr Chuan his chance of retaining the premiership," it said.

The Nation newspaper last month projected Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) would edge out the Democrats by securing about 170 of the 500 seats in the lower house versus 150 seats for Chuan's party.

Thaksin, founder of Thailand's largest telecoms firm Shin Corp, has dismissed criticism that he has used his immense wealth to help his rapid rise in national politics. He has capitalized on growing public impatience with Thailand's sluggish pace of recovery.