Chinese diplomacy

The Chinese are masters of all-or-nothing diplomacy. They make good relations the prize for complete obedience to their demands, and yet there is nothing they despise more than a supplicant Western power trying to butter its way into their good books. Their other great gift is for maintaining the illusion that China has far more to offer, economically and politically, than is really the case.

Tony Blair's caravan in Beijing, with its assorted business leaders in the rear, is only the latest of many from Europe and America. Like them, it will come away with assurances about partnership that the Chinese will trade on when they want something and which they will often forget when the 'partner' is doing the asking.

London maintained correct relations with Beijing when American policy was captive to paranoid fantasies about the Chinese communists. In those days "realism" had something to commend it. Yet what would a "realistic" analysis of China tell us now?

It would tell us that China is a country with grave social and political problems which it is very far from even beginning to master. It would tell us that although China has shown remarkable economic growth, this has been from a very low base, and that the opportunities it offers for Western trade and investment are less than is often suggested. It would tell us that the Chinese show little interest in learning from the experience of other countries. It would tell us that the confident style of the leadership is mainly a bluff. And it would tell us that China needs Western countries as much as they need China.

-- The Guardian, London