China will stay on course

With the death of Deng Xiaoping, all eyes will be on the stability of the country whose destiny he molded, changing for the better the prospects for the rest of the world. Notwithstanding its size an often turbulent history since the establishment of the People's Republic in 1949, stability and not precipitate change is likely to be the order of the day as President Jiang Zemin leads it into the new century. While nothing can be ruled out, this much needs to be ruled in. The stakes are high, not only for China and its economic transformation, but also for other countries which will be affected directly by the role it chooses to play in the Asia- Pacific. A stable China will continue to make the difference in favor of peace and prosperity, not least for the region around it.

Mr. Jiang, it is true, is not part of the legendary Long March, a credential that had much to do with conferring popular legitimacy on his predecessors. He is not from the military, a background that has added clout to authority for others. He is not, and is not interested in appearing like, a charismatic leader. But he is an accomplished technocrat and consummate politician, whose suave and understated ways belie his determination to get the things he wants done, and his ability to outmaneuver those who would put political obstacles in the way. A general secretary of the Communist Party, chairman of the Central Military Commission and President of the state, his power is drawn from institutions that form the pillars of the system. No less important than these factors are the reforms which the patriarch initiated. These have become such an intrinsic part of Chinese theory and are entrenched so well in practice that their continued pursuit can only enhance his power.

None of this is to argue that China will not change. It will and, indeed, it must. Inflation, corruption and other problems associated with the economic boom call for redressal. Trying to do so -- and seen to be so trying -- will increase the public's support for both the reform process and Mr. Jiang. Politically, his interest in maintaining stability, which must be a priority for anybody taking the reins of power, does not preclude him from recognizing the aspirations of an affluent and better educated China, particularly the constituency of its young and professional classes that are at the vanguard of its development. Unlike the iron politics that charted the route for the country's escape from iron-bowl economics, the time will come for political reforms that keep pace with higher stages of its development. What is important is that all this occurs gradually and naturally. A sudden change of political direction could be painful because of its two possible consequences, an upheaval and a backlash. China can afford neither.

-- The Straits Times, Singapore