Sat, 06 May 2000

China, U.S. keen to consign embassy bombing to history

By Phil Chetwynd

BEIJING (AFP): One year after a NATO jet blew a gaping hole in Sino-U.S. ties by slamming a bomb into China's embassy in Belgrade, the two powers have patched up their prickly relationship but suspicions still lurk under the surface.

The bombing last May 7 during the height of NATO's air war on Yugoslavia unleashed several days of violent government-fueled anti-U.S. protests in Beijing and other cities, leading to a dangerous breakdown in relations.

Bilateral dialogues on security, non-proliferation and human rights were cut off by Beijing and talks on a key bilateral World Trade Organization (WTO) trade deal were only resumed after Washington agreed compensation for the families of the three Chinese killed and 20 injured in the attack.

But analysts and diplomats in Beijing have since noted that the key strategic relationship has been put back together with extraordinary haste.

"It is striking how fast they moved to put their relationship back on track and normalize their ties," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, director of the Hong Kong-based French Center for Research on Contemporary China.

"Most of the issues thrown up by the bombing have been cleared up and the bilateral trade deal on WTO membership reached in November was a clear indication they were not prepared to let this issue hold them back."

The trade deal, vital for China's 14-year bid to join the WTO, was followed by a compensation deal in December in which the United States agreed to pay US$28 million for damage to the embassy on top of the $4.5 million allotted to the victims' families.

China in turn agreed to pay the United States $2.87 million for damage caused by Chinese rioters to U.S. diplomatic missions in China.

However China still insists the bombing was deliberate and has rejected the findings of a lengthy investigation by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency which sanctioned eight officials and blamed a series of intelligence and targeting errors for the attack.

NATO has always insisted it was trying to hit a nearby Yugoslav military supply headquarters.

"As far the U.S. side is concerned the matter is finished, and I think the two sides have basically agreed to disagree on this issue and move forward," said a Western diplomat in Beijing.

The military and security dialogues are now back on after a series of high-level military talks in Beijing and Washington, while China has also said it is prepared to restart non- proliferation talks.

Human rights remains a stumbling block, but analysts say that issue is more related to the U.S. decision to table a censure motion against China at the UN Human Rights Commission than any fall-out from the embassy bombing.

Joseph Cheng, a China expert at City University in Hong Kong, said that while he expected strong criticism of the United States over the bombing to mark the anniversary, he did not expect the authorities to allow students to take to the streets again.

He pointed out the anniversary comes just several weeks before U.S. lawmakers are to vote on whether to give China Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR), which would give China the preferential trade conditions enjoyed by nearly all of Washington's trading partners.

The vote is expected to be close and Beijing will not want to push any senators the wrong way, said Cheng.

"There seems to be a very deliberate attempt to play this anniversary down. I think Beijing realizes it is futile to keep this issue alive, and it has also staked everything on WTO membership," said Cheng.

So far the official press has refrained from stoking the fires of nationalism ahead of the anniversary and students at Beijing's universities who boarded government buses last year to surround the U.S. embassy told AFP they knew of no action planned for Sunday.

But both Cheng and Cabestan said the issue had not been totally laid to rest.

"The bombing incident has certainly left a mark. There is an element of distrust in the relationship which could cause problems on the Taiwan issue," said Cheng.

Added Cabestan: "The issue of Taiwan could always come back to haunt them. The United States simply cannot ignore the arms race across the Taiwan Strait."