China threat revived as military modernized

By Benget Simbolon Tnb.

BEIJING (JP): China, which has enjoyed remarkable economic growth during the last two decades, has also modernized its military capability to a level it says is commensurate with the need to protect its 1.25 billion people and to maintain regional stability while continuing its development plan.

But the military exercises conducted by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) two years ago surprised a number of countries in the region. They believe the PLA's weapon reliability and accuracy as well as the fact that China is one of the world's nuclear powers could pose a threat to them.

The spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Zhu Bangzao, said China's military modernization was tailored to the defensive requirement to protect its goal of economic and political development.

"We need to maintain stability at home and in this region as a prerequisite for our economic development," Zhu said during an interview with journalists from three visiting Indonesian newspapers, including The Jakarta Post, earlier this month.

He said that a China which did not develop well and continued to experience high poverty levels could disrupt the stability of the region and world peace.

Some of China's neighbors, however, do not see it that way. They have expressed a growing apprehension at China's military strength, especially the continued modernization of its antiquated arsenal with military equipment purchased from Russia -- such as SU-27 jet fighters -- and an aircraft carrier from France. The widespread belief is that it could create a military hegemony in Asia for the world's most populous country.

Their fear might well have resulted from China's controversial saber rattling when Taiwan held a presidential election in 1996. Although China has always regarded Taiwan as a renegade province, the saber rattling did create tension in the Taiwan Strait, prompting the United States to send an aircraft carrier to waters near the island.

Furthermore, some minor incidents involving Chinese troops have also taken place during the past few years. For example, China dispatched a small group of troops to the Mischief Reef, a group of islets and rocks in the South China Sea which the Philippines claims as its territory. In March 1997, Vietnam alleged that Chinese troops had occupied one of its gas fields, also located in the South China Sea.

Although divided in opinion, most local and foreign analysts agree that countries in the region should not exaggerate their fear of China's military modernization and the possibility that it could trigger a regional arms race.

Their opinion is based on the fact that China has slashed the size of it once three-million-strong military and that, at least for another decade, Beijing will spend more of its budget on boosting its ambitious economic development programs than it will on its military.

Zhu said some people might have misunderstood his country's military modernization. "Despite the modernization, our military budget is still low. As long as there is no threat to our sovereignty and security, we will never increase our military's budget," he said.

According to reports released last year by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, China's military spending in 1996 was US$28.5 billion, as compared with Russia's $98 billion and the United States' $270.6 billion.

Zhu pointed out the "China threat" theory was created in the post-Cold War era by those who did not like to see China becoming a developed country. "I think people in this region will be able to see it more wisely. They cannot be easily duped into believing such an idea," he added.

A modernized and prosperous China will obviously benefit not only countries in the region but also the international communi ty. But due to its size and huge population, it is understandable that many countries, especially those in the region, will cautiously follow whatever steps China is taking and will take in the future.

Many believe that China can abate, if not eliminate, its neighbors' fear and suspicion of the so-called "China threat" when Beijing introduces greater liberalization of its political system and issues more transparent information regarding its military's modernization.