China-Taiwan unification drama starting

Yoichi Funabashi, Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo

On my way into Shanghai from Pudong airport, I noticed many trucks on the road hauling sea containers that bore the emblem of Evergreen Marine Corp. The Taiwan-based company is the world's largest marine shipper of the ubiquitous standard-sized steel boxes.

Evergreen founder Chang Yung-fa recently shocked his fellow Taiwanese when he said that Taiwan's economy would not survive without mainland China. His remark caught people off-guard because he is regarded in business circles as one of the main supporters of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

I heard the expression "three fives" in reference to Taiwan's advancement into China. It stands for 50,000 companies that are doing business with China, the 500,000 businessmen (1 million, including families) who moved there and Taiwan's direct investment to China worth US$50 billion (6.5 trillion yen).

As the lower structure (economy) undergoes change, it has the potential to change the upper structure (politics).

It appears China is using economic power as a springboard to advance its long-cherished dream to unify with Taiwan. At the same time, it seems to have developed a kind of confidence.

In January, in response to China's and Taiwan's admittance to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen said trade between China and Taiwan should be raised to "a new level." He called for exchanges with the DPP. Referring to the development, Zhou Mingwei, vice minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the China State Council, stressed that it was "the most important message in the last 10 years."

Another aspect of the Taiwan problem is that it appears to exemplify the souring of U.S.-China relations. China's wariness toward the United States has not weakened, even after their cooperative effort to fight terrorism since Sept. 11.

China's perception is that the United States regards China as a future strategic rival and that it is scheming to upset China's plan to unite Taiwan. Beijing suspects that is why the United States is trying to expand the theater missile defense (TMD) umbrella over Taiwan. China is trying to dissuade Japan from joining a TMD scenario that includes Taiwan. "In Taiwan, they say the T in TMD stands for Taiwan." It's as if China is warning Japan not to fall for U.S. tricks.

Since the 1970s, the Taiwan problem has basically been a political issue. From now on, however, it will no doubt increasingly become a geopolitical issue with an emphasis on Taiwan's military value. Unification should be brought to a "peaceful settlement." However, even if such a settlement is reached, so long as the political system of the continent remains as it is, there is no guarantee that the military power of the unified state would not be a threat to others.

In the end, the democratization of mainland China will be the most effective way to advance unification. If that happens, China will be pressed to accelerate political reform.

That being the case, would it be better not to try and achieve China-Taiwan unification as soon as possible so as to encourage China's full-scale democratization first? Perhaps that is what the Bush administration is privately thinking.

"Taiwan's democratization started in the 1980s as part of a national strategy not to be abandoned by the United States," according to a Japanese Taiwan specialist. Will that strategy come to fruition during the tenure of the Bush administration? Or will China oppose it, thereby delaying its advancement toward democratization?

China is becoming a major economic power. Both China and Taiwan have joined the WTO. China is moving toward the rule of law. Economic change is bound to cause political change. The curtain is about to rise for the second act of the China-Taiwan unification drama.