China-Taiwan entente

The Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo

Chairman Lien Chan of the Nationalist Party, Taiwan's largest opposition party, met last Friday in Beijing with Chinese President Hu Jintao, where they agreed upon their shared opposition to independence for Taiwan. They also announced a five-point consensus for improving cross-Straits ties, including a mechanism to avoid military clashes between the mainland and the island.

This marked the first summit between the leaders of these two parties since that involving Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Tse-tung in 1945. Six decades of bitter rivalry ensued, with Chiang fleeing to Taiwan in 1949 after being defeated in a civil war and the communists founding the current People's Republic of China on the mainland.

On Taiwan, the Nationalists lost government power in 2000 when Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected president. The Nationalist Party has continued to condemn the DPP for suggesting independence for Taiwan, while appealing for reconciliation with the mainland.

The Nationalists' next goal is to regain the presidency in the 2008 election. The Nationalist aims have much in common with the wishes of Beijing, which has warned against Chen's independence leanings, thus paving the way for last week's meeting. The recent passage by Beijing of an anti-secession law, stating that any moves by Taiwan to declare independence would be crushed with military force, created an unsettling image that immersed the Taiwan Strait in tension. This meeting certainly helped to ease that strain a bit.

The single greatest issue for politics in Taiwan is the sense of distance with the mainland. While the mood of independence continues to proliferate among the Taiwanese people, the island's economy is growing increasingly more dependent on China. Last year, two-thirds of Taiwan's external investment targeted the mainland. More and more Taiwanese are calling for stable relations with Beijing.

In this sense, one message inherent in Lien's historic visit to Beijing can be read as the claim that only the Nationalist Party can repair the strained ties that have developed under Chen's DPP.

One reason behind Hu's lending a hand to enhance the Nationalists' status is that the Taiwan issue is viewed as essential for assessing the abilities of China's leaders. Recently, however, Beijing has been buffeted by adverse developments in that area.

One was Chen's capturing of just over 50 percent of the vote to be re-elected as the president in March 2004, and his subsequent talk of establishing a new constitution that would declare the island sovereign. In this February's meeting of the Japan-U.S. Security Consultative Committee, Tokyo and Washington called the Taiwan issue a shared strategic goal for the first time.

For Hu, there was a need to use the anti-secession law to exhibit an unwavering stance-also the case when he further underscored China's firm stance on Taiwan during his recent meeting with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

The handshake at the Great Hall of the People can be viewed as the fruits of Chinese leaders in apparently coaxing back Taipei, which seemed on the verge of straying. It also scored handsome points for Hu as the man at the top.

After Lien, Beijing also plans to host James Soong, leader of the People First Party (Taiwan's second-largest opposition party). This will be used to throw support behind Taiwanese who attach great importance to good relations with China, and it will turn up the pressure on the DPP.

If the Nationalists win back the government, Beijing most likely believes that this recent consensus can be used as the cornerstone for initiating China-Taiwan unification talks.

Backlash, however, is emerging in Taiwan over the actions by the opposition Nationalists and Lien's pose of mimicking the head of the government party in participating in the Beijing exchange.