China-Taiwan dialog the only choice for stability

The Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo

Taiwanese voters have spoken. The election for the legislature held last weekend can be summarized as follows: Orientation toward independence is fine, but rising tensions with mainland China are a problem; stability and prosperity are key. Since the Nationalist-led opposition camp retained a majority in the legislature, there is little likelihood that President Chen Shui- bien will be able to press ahead with his policy of greater independence from China.

In campaigning, Chen, who was re-elected last March, appealed for enactment of a new Constitution more in line with actual conditions in Taiwan. He wanted to do this by holding a referendum two years later and replacing "China" in the names of publicly managed businesses, such as China Airlines, with "Taiwan." He no doubt intended to accelerate Taiwan's separation from the mainland in a single stroke.

In the face of this election result, however, Chen declared he would promote unity and cooperation with various political forces in Taiwan. He demonstrated a willingness to join hands with the Nationalists, who for the moment can accept the state of Taiwan's relations with China.

Even though Taiwan and China continue to cross swords over the question of sovereignty, their economic ties are growing closer on a daily basis. Trade in the first 10 months this year rose 36 percent year-on-year. Taiwan's investment in China is also brisk. It is said that about 1 million Taiwanese businesspeople currently reside in China.

Those same people reportedly returned to Taiwan en masse to cast their ballots. It is feasible that those entrepreneurs doing business in China served as a bridge between Taiwan and China and had an impact on the election result.

In the economic field, mutual dependence between a rapidly developing China and a far advanced Taiwan continues to deepen with each passing year. In politics, by contrast, the distance between them continues to grow.

Fifty-five years have passed since the Nationalist government moved to Taiwan as a result of the civil war raging in China. Taiwan has a government, military force and foreign policy of its own. Even though its sovereignty is not recognized by many countries, nobody doubts its practical independence from China.

Because of this, Chen's administration argues that Taiwan is a "separate country" from China. He has been trying to make it clear that Taiwan belongs to the people of Taiwan.

China, on the other hand, insists that Taiwan is "an inseparable part of China," and sticks to its ground that it will eventually unify with China. While Beijing says it will tolerate a "one country-two system" formula if Taiwan accepts its unification with China, Taiwan contends it cannot accept this overture.

In the meantime, the people of Taiwan are increasingly conscious of being "Taiwanese." Public opinion polls show that those in Taiwan who think of themselves as "Chinese" accounted for only 10 to 20 percent of the population in 2000 as opposed to more than 50 percent at the end of 1980s. Conversely, those who think of themselves as "Taiwanese" rose to 30 percent in 2000 compared with 10 to 20 percent at the end of 1980s. This tendency may in fact be more marked today.

Even though the latest election result will keep Chen's administration in check, the poll did not put a halt to Taiwan's moves toward greater independence.

But rising tensions over the Taiwan Strait do not benefit anyone. It is hoped that the governments in Beijing and Taipei will try to resume suspended inter-governmental dialogue by taking advantage of the present interlude in political reorientation produced by voters who clearly yearn for stability.