China puts Japan in firing line

By Edward Neilan

TOKYO (JP): Like it or not, Japan is now irrevocably part of the greater "Taiwan Strait sea lanes" public debate that previously involved only the United States and China.

In fact it is China that has introduced the "something new" element into the debate and appears ready to play a political "Japan card." China relentlessly warns against foreign interference in its affairs on one hand and yet seems to want to goad foreign nations into getting involved in the Taiwan issue.

Chinese President Jiang Zemin, having downgraded his military foes within the Chinese ruling ranks, sees the road to Taipei as a political journey through Tokyo and Washington rather than a military action across the Taiwan Strait. The inner circles of the China leadership now perceive conquest of Taiwan as more than restoration of geographical territory and lost pride. Considerations of nationalism have been overshadowed by realization that Taiwan is a great strategic prize with wide implications for the future balance of power in Asia.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen on Monday again criticized the revised Japan-U.S. defense cooperation guidelines because they could cover the Taiwan Strait.

His criticism reflected concerns among Chinese leaders who seized upon a comment one month ago by former Cabinet Spokesman Seiroku Kajiyama that "Taiwan is included in the area of cooperation...nothing has changed." The Chinese said that the inclusion of the Taiwan Strait in the scope of the guidelines would constitute an interference in China's domestic affairs.

Although paying lip service to the opposite, China seems to be aiming to get selected foreigners involved in the Taiwan debate, thinking that it will help rather than hinder a settlement on China's terms.

The selection of Japan for recent criticism on its "revised" defense relationship with the U.S. generally and the Taiwan Strait issue specifically, smacks of either outright paranoia or calculated strategy.

After watching Chinese behavior for a number of years, I would suggest it is the latter.

Japan's own thorough and sophisticated arrangements for protecting its nationals from an emergency in Taiwan is well- known.

Nothing surreptitious, nothing hush-hush. I walked in the front door of the Japan Interchange Association (the euphemism for the Japanese Embassy under the charade of no diplomatic relations) on Tun Hwa Road in Taipei a year ago, introduced myself as a journalist, and received a briefing.

The briefing included plans for the evacuation by air and sea -- using Japanese aircraft and ships in Taiwan Strait air space --- of Japanese nationals in case of an intense missile attack or other bombardment. Who might be launching the missiles? No one wants to offend China. Let's just say the missiles causing the evacuation are not expected to be fired by Peru.

The plans are to evacuate 10,000 Japanese residents of Taiwan and the 10,000 Japanese tourists that are in Taiwan on any given day. The new guidelines spell out that Japan and the U.S. will evacuate their own nationals from any war zone, but will cooperate if necessary. But China doesn't want Japan to talk about such things publicly.

For reasons of strategy, China wants to increase tension in the Taiwan Strait. Past attempts at invasion and intimidation were thwarted in 1958 and 1996. Beijing's ongoing efforts to choke Taiwan's diplomatic elbow room abroad are well known.

You can expect a different kind of offensive this time and sooner rather than later. China wants to provoke foreigners to push for a Taiwan settlement -- capitulation -- on Beijing's terms. The payoff would be increased access to China's development potential. Taiwan is a target on which President Jiang Zemin must show some progress on if he is to consolidate the power apparatus he unveiled at the recent 15th Congress of the Communist Party of China.