China plans for peaceful ascendancy

Yoichi Funabashi, Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo

There is no doubt that "the rise of China" will be a historic undertaking comparable to or even greater than that of postwar Japan. Yet what kind of a country will it rise in to?

Beijing's target is to increase its per capita gross domestic product fourfold by 2020 to attain a state of "remission." However, its future outlook on the world and foreign policy is unclear. What is more, in what way will China rise?

In international politics, how a country rises often has more drastic consequences for the world than the rise itself. The speed, velocity, ideology and most significantly, the impact it has on the international balance of power cause other countries to harbor suspicions, caution, jealousy and fear, and trigger antipathy among other reactions. The way Germany in the late 19th century and Japan at the beginning of the 20th century made remarkable advances sparked considerable reactions from established powers.

"The rise of China" could also trigger all of the above. Many things in China are regarded as ``potential forces that could change the status quo'' and provoke anxiety: the size of its population; low wages; the ``great leap forward'' in growth; environmental destruction; its policy of attaching greatest importance to the market under a one-party system; exclusionary nationalism; and eventual "confrontation with the United States."

However, I recently took part in an international conference alongside several Chinese diplomats and researchers and learned that China itself is even more aware of these dangers than anyone else.

A researcher at a Beijing-based government-affiliated think tank commented: ``China aims to grow and advance without upsetting existing orders. We are trying to rise in a way that benefits our neighbors.''

I heard that in Chinese, such a process of ``peaceful ascendancy'' is called heping-jueqi (rising peace).

As for U.S. relations, China has been faithfully following Deng Xiaoping's advice to Jiang Zemin to never act haughtily. For now, China is concentrating on domestic economic construction and refraining from projecting its power externally. However, this is because it is still in the development phase. The question is, once it surpasses "a state of remission," will it become "haughty"?

But the argument of "peaceful ascendancy" appears to be a long-term strategy.

A member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference said: "How did historic empires and major powers rise and what reactions did they trigger? What should we do so as not to cause excessive wariness? This is what we are currently studying internally."

A researcher at an influential think tank responded: ``We are studying the origin of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War. Why did it happen? Was there no way to prevent it? Some see that a U.S.- China cold war is inevitable but what can we do to prevent it?''

In addition to containing the "China threat" theory, it appears China's "peaceful ascendancy" argument is also aimed at laying the groundwork for its "major power diplomacy" as can be seen in the hosting of the six-party talks over the North Korean problem.

The November-December issue of Foreign Affairs magazine contains an article by Evan S. Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel entitled China's New Diplomacy. It presents the views of experts on Chinese foreign policy that China should overcome its long- held "victim mentality" and adopt a great "power mentality" instead. These experts must be aware that there is no greater threat to the world than the emergence of a major power in possession of a victim mentality.

Still, can China readily dispel the humiliation and victim mentality it has harbored during the past 150 years since the Opium War and 15 years of Japanese aggression?

For example, the Internet is so flooded with Chinese public opinion obsessed with xenophobic vengeful thoughts and Sinocentrism that a Chinese intellect likened it to Dazibao (big wall newspaper) during the Cultural Revolution. When I pointed this out, the leader of a Beijing think tank remarked: "China's mainstream is more calm and analyzes the situation objectively. Please don't accept Internet public opinion without question." I certainly hope that's true.

Chinese people give vent to their anti-U.S. sentiments, whereas they tend to keep their antipathy to Japan bottled up. A veteran Chinese diplomat who made reference to such warped reality cited an example of business negotiations over the bullet train.

"Even though placing an international order for the construction of a high-speed railway that links Beijing and Shanghai is a purely technical and economic matter that has to do with introducing what kind of technology from which country, when it involves Japan, (in China) the problem tends to become a complex, political and emotional issue. It is making a wall that stands between China and Japan."

However, the fact that Chinese intellectuals have come to voice such views so frankly is in itself a major change. Is this not also part of the peaceful ascendancy process?