China moves towards one-party pluralism

Raymond Wu, Visiting Research Fellow, East Asian Institute National University of Singapore, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

If things go as planned, the 16th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will be the second time in China's history that power is transferred peacefully to a new generation of leaders. The first was when President Jiang Zemin became the CCP general secretary in 1989.

But while who gets in and who goes out during this congress will be important, also important is what the congress represents at the broader social and political level.

From economic liberalization to social reorganization, this congress is the official dawning of a new phase in China's transformation, one marked by greater market openness, social pluralism, and possibly, the beginning of political institutionalization.

China has been on a one-way express towards reform and liberalization since Deng Xiaoping's famous "Southern Tour" in 1992, pursuing "socialism with Chinese characteristics".

Top leaders came and went, but the commitment to reform stayed firm and above ideological debate. This was partly why China could achieve steady growth despite domestic turmoil such as the Tiananmen tragedy in 1989.

The "Three Represents" introduced at this congress -- that the CCP must represent "the most potent forces of production, the most advanced forces of culture and the fundamental interests of the greatest number of people" -- are a redefinition of Chinese communism, and the leadership's answer to emerging social pluralism in China.

The CCP knows that rapid socio-economic transformation has led to segments of society feeling alienated, and that it must expand opportunities in power-sharing to protect its position as the lone resource distributor.

Indeed, the new social and professional groups -- small- and medium-sized business owners, managerial and technical personnel, and service-sector specialists -- have become too integral a part in China's socio-economic fabric to be ignored.

As "all things to all people", the CCP hopes to reconcile historical legacy with present-day challenges brought by globalization and market economics. Offering party membership to these newly-emerged social groups is the first step in making the CCP more inclusive and representative of diverse interests.

Despite these formidable challenges, the CCP remains firmly in control of all the power apparatus in China, such as the military, the bureaucracy and the police. There is no reason to believe that things will be noticeably different after the fourth generation of leaders assumes power.

But some things will test the new leadership's resolve:

One, its ability to get along and work together. Jiang could well be the last political strongman in China, and despite the lack of institutional measures for mandatory retirement, he is expected to relinquish most of his positions, though not his influence, at this congress.

Power-sharing is a concept as foreign to Chinese leaders as multi-party democracy. But it needs to become a fact of life for those who will wield and deal in power as China's new ruling elite in the years ahead.

Two, its ability to address domestic problems. Urgent issues include World Trade Organization compliance, privatization of state-owned enterprises, fiscal deficits and the insolvency of financial institutions.

No one expects these problems to disappear overnight, but if not dealt with adequately, they could threaten not only the new leadership's governance but also even undermine its legitimacy and the overall stability of the country.

Three, the leaders' capacity to oversee the CCP's qualitative transformation. With the "Three Represents", the CCP will no longer represent just the interests of the peasants and workers, but also those of the business professionals and property owners.

Multi-party democracy will not happen any time soon in China. But there may be some form of authoritarian pluralism, where diverse views and interests are permitted within an all- encompassing entity such as the CCP, which will retain the ultimate policy-making authority.

The changes that China is undergoing shatter stereotypical notions of this massive country. These changes open up the possibility of China institutionalizing its political processes in a way that would make its policies and conduct more stable, consistent and predictable in the future.

China's emergence as a regional power is a foregone conclusion. Its international posture will impact not only neighboring countries but also the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. It is in the interests of all concerned to develop a modus operandi in managing relations with this rising neighbor.

It is also the collective responsibility of all to make certain that China assumes its due responsibility associated with growing strength and influence.