China may have miscalculated over Mischief Reef (1)

By Bilveer Singh

This is the first of two articles examining China's recent move on Mischief Reef in the South China Sea.

SINGAPORE (JP): By the time the National People's Congress passed the Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone in February 1992, China had already twice used force to occupy islands in the South China Sea, namely, in January 1974 and in March 1988.

On both occasions, China was involved in a "fire-fight" with the Vietnamese and got away without much negative consequences. By this, China manifested its intentions to become a major player in the South China Sea region which she claimed was exclusively hers on the basis of history.

Even though Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines also claimed parts or whole of the South China Sea region, China was not prepared to discuss the issue of sovereignty with them even though it indicated its preparedness to undertake joint economic activities.

Then in February 1995, China occupied Mischief Reef, some 135 nautical miles to the west of the Philippines and 240 kilometers west of the Philippines island of Palawan. The Chinese built four structures on the reef, indicating that they had been at work for sometime. The Chinese occupation of the Mischief Reef was novel to the extent that for the first time a territory claimed by an ASEAN member, in this case the Philippines, was attacked.

China's aggression in Mischief Reef was not unexpected. Her determination could be seen in the incorporation of the Spratly Islands as part of the Hainan Province in July 1987 and in February 1992, the passage of the maritime law, giving her a legal basis to claim the whole of the South China Sea.

China also boosted her sovereignty claims to the region through a host of activities, including maritime expeditions, the operation of meteorological stations as well as the granting of oil exploration concessions to foreign companies in areas with overlapping claims.

With a booming economy, China has undertaken a large scale military modernization program, emphasizing on the development of power projection capabilities. China has also indicated interest in acquiring an aircraft carrier by 2000. China has also been undertaking large scale military exercises in the South China Sea region as well as demonstrated her ability to operate outside the South China Sea.

As China was gripped with an internal power struggle, it was indeed puzzling that China should now raise the stakes in the South China Sea contest. The question is why? First, the Philippines was understandably targeted as it was militarily the weakest of all the claimants. The Chinese calculated that their military action would go unchallenged and they were right. It was all the more inviting as the Philippines-United States strategic nexus had been weakened following the American military withdrawal from the Philippines in December 1992.

More significant were other political and strategic calculations. Beijing targeted Mischief Reef as it was the outer perimeter of the Spratly chain, the occupation of which will allow China to claim all the waters and islands within it. It will provide her with an "anchor" to draw its base line as well as claim the new Extended Economic Zone under the United Nations Conference on the Law of Sea which China is yet to ratify.

Mischief Reef is strategically important as most of the north- south maritime communications pass through the channel bordered by Mischief Reef on the west and the Palawan island on the east. China's control of Mischief Reef will provide her with the capability to influence, and possibly control, the sea-lanes of communications through which much military and commercial traffic passes.

The timing of Mischief Reef's occupation also appeared impeccable. The Clinton administration was preoccupied with domestic concerns; Japan was largely ambivalent; many Southeast Asian countries were preoccupied with the economic engagement of China; and ASEAN's solidarity was weakened by the Philippines- Singapore dispute over the hanging of a maid.

The decision to occupy Mischief Reef was made at the highest level, with President Jiang Zemin endorsing the military operation to win the support of the military to bolster his political position in post-Deng China.

In view of the impeccable timing, as in the 1974 and 1988 operations, the Chinese expected the Southeast Asian countries as well as the international community to acquiesce their actions. Unfortunately for Beijing, their actions were a major miscalculation, as seen by a number of reactions, which are unlikely to benefit China in the coming years.

In early March 1995, the European Union made its first ever declaration on the South China Sea, expressing concern at China's actions. It called on China and the Philippines to show restraint.

It also invited both parties to adhere to the principles contained in the July 1992 ASEAN Declaration on the South China Sea, which had also been endorsed by China. The European statement warned that the South China Sea was a maritime area of great importance to international traffic, signaling that any worsening of the conflict there would have great international repercussions.

On 18 March, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers expressed their "serious concern" over China's occupation of Mischief Reef and called "for an early resolution of the problem". The Foreign Ministers called on all parties "to remain faithful to the Manila Declaration on the South China Sea". This "solidarity" was an important signal to China that ASEAN was sticking together on this issue despite the Singapore-Philippine fracas over the maid issue.

The next reaction came from the United States. Traditionally the United States had always pledged neutrality with regard to the problem in the South China Sea, as was the case during the early phase of the Mischief Reef problem.

Yet, on May 10, under the leadership of Dr. Josephy Nye, a senior State Department official, the United States made its strongest statement on the South China Sea, putting China on notice that her "creeping annexations" will no longer be tolerated.

This also coincided with a growing belligerency in the White House and Congress against China. The statement warned that "the United States is concerned that a pattern of unilateral actions and reactions in the South China Sea has increased tensions in that region".

It also reaffirmed that "the United States strongly opposes the use of threat or force to resolve competing claims and urges all claimants to exercise restraint and to avoid destabilizing actions".

The statement also clearly sign-posted American interest in the region by stating that "maintaining freedom of navigation is a fundamental interest of the United States. Unhindered navigation by all ships and aircraft in the South China Sea is essential for the peace and prosperity of the entire Asia-Pacific region, including the United States".