China may have miscalculated over Mischief Reef (1)

China may have miscalculated over Mischief Reef (1)

By Bilveer Singh

This is the first of two articles examining China's recent
move on Mischief Reef in the South China Sea.

SINGAPORE (JP): By the time the National People's Congress
passed the Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone in
February 1992, China had already twice used force to occupy
islands in the South China Sea, namely, in January 1974 and in
March 1988.

On both occasions, China was involved in a "fire-fight" with
the Vietnamese and got away without much negative consequences.
By this, China manifested its intentions to become a major player
in the South China Sea region which she claimed was exclusively
hers on the basis of history.

Even though Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the
Philippines also claimed parts or whole of the South China Sea
region, China was not prepared to discuss the issue of
sovereignty with them even though it indicated its preparedness
to undertake joint economic activities.

Then in February 1995, China occupied Mischief Reef, some 135
nautical miles to the west of the Philippines and 240 kilometers
west of the Philippines island of Palawan. The Chinese built four
structures on the reef, indicating that they had been at work for
sometime. The Chinese occupation of the Mischief Reef was novel
to the extent that for the first time a territory claimed by an
ASEAN member, in this case the Philippines, was attacked.

China's aggression in Mischief Reef was not unexpected. Her
determination could be seen in the incorporation of the Spratly
Islands as part of the Hainan Province in July 1987 and in
February 1992, the passage of the maritime law, giving her a
legal basis to claim the whole of the South China Sea.

China also boosted her sovereignty claims to the region
through a host of activities, including maritime expeditions, the
operation of meteorological stations as well as the granting of
oil exploration concessions to foreign companies in areas with
overlapping claims.

With a booming economy, China has undertaken a large scale
military modernization program, emphasizing on the development of
power projection capabilities. China has also indicated interest
in acquiring an aircraft carrier by 2000. China has also been
undertaking large scale military exercises in the South China Sea
region as well as demonstrated her ability to operate outside the
South China Sea.

As China was gripped with an internal power struggle, it was
indeed puzzling that China should now raise the stakes in the
South China Sea contest. The question is why? First, the
Philippines was understandably targeted as it was militarily the
weakest of all the claimants. The Chinese calculated that their
military action would go unchallenged and they were right. It was
all the more inviting as the Philippines-United States strategic
nexus had been weakened following the American military
withdrawal from the Philippines in December 1992.

More significant were other political and strategic
calculations. Beijing targeted Mischief Reef as it was the outer
perimeter of the Spratly chain, the occupation of which will
allow China to claim all the waters and islands within it. It
will provide her with an "anchor" to draw its base line as well
as claim the new Extended Economic Zone under the United Nations
Conference on the Law of Sea which China is yet to ratify.

Mischief Reef is strategically important as most of the north-
south maritime communications pass through the channel bordered
by Mischief Reef on the west and the Palawan island on the east.
China's control of Mischief Reef will provide her with the
capability to influence, and possibly control, the sea-lanes of
communications through which much military and commercial traffic
passes.

The timing of Mischief Reef's occupation also appeared
impeccable. The Clinton administration was preoccupied with
domestic concerns; Japan was largely ambivalent; many Southeast
Asian countries were preoccupied with the economic engagement of
China; and ASEAN's solidarity was weakened by the Philippines-
Singapore dispute over the hanging of a maid.

The decision to occupy Mischief Reef was made at the highest
level, with President Jiang Zemin endorsing the military
operation to win the support of the military to bolster his
political position in post-Deng China.

In view of the impeccable timing, as in the 1974 and 1988
operations, the Chinese expected the Southeast Asian countries as
well as the international community to acquiesce their actions.
Unfortunately for Beijing, their actions were a major
miscalculation, as seen by a number of reactions, which are
unlikely to benefit China in the coming years.

In early March 1995, the European Union made its first ever
declaration on the South China Sea, expressing concern at China's
actions. It called on China and the Philippines to show
restraint.

It also invited both parties to adhere to the principles
contained in the July 1992 ASEAN Declaration on the South China
Sea, which had also been endorsed by China. The European
statement warned that the South China Sea was a maritime area of
great importance to international traffic, signaling that any
worsening of the conflict there would have great international
repercussions.

On 18 March, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers expressed their
"serious concern" over China's occupation of Mischief Reef and
called "for an early resolution of the problem". The Foreign
Ministers called on all parties "to remain faithful to the Manila
Declaration on the South China Sea". This "solidarity" was an
important signal to China that ASEAN was sticking together on
this issue despite the Singapore-Philippine fracas over the maid
issue.

The next reaction came from the United States. Traditionally
the United States had always pledged neutrality with regard to
the problem in the South China Sea, as was the case during the
early phase of the Mischief Reef problem.

Yet, on May 10, under the leadership of Dr. Josephy Nye, a
senior State Department official, the United States made its
strongest statement on the South China Sea, putting China on
notice that her "creeping annexations" will no longer be
tolerated.

This also coincided with a growing belligerency in the White
House and Congress against China. The statement warned that "the
United States is concerned that a pattern of unilateral actions
and reactions in the South China Sea has increased tensions in
that region".

It also reaffirmed that "the United States strongly opposes
the use of threat or force to resolve competing claims and urges
all claimants to exercise restraint and to avoid destabilizing
actions".

The statement also clearly sign-posted American interest in
the region by stating that "maintaining freedom of navigation is
a fundamental interest of the United States. Unhindered
navigation by all ships and aircraft in the South China Sea is
essential for the peace and prosperity of the entire Asia-Pacific
region, including the United States".