China may 'conquer' all with fear -- and love

Tom Plate, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

One thing is clear about many Bush administration people. They have attitude, a lot of it. And they make little secret of it: They don't care much about what other nations think of their policies.

This is not always such a bad thing, especially when arrogance is backed by enormous military and economic clout and there are true, evil villains out there.

As the 15th-century sage of Florence, Machiavelli, famously noted in The Prince, his primer of hard-nosed political leadership, it is better for a nation to be both loved and feared. But, he noted: "It is much safer to be feared than to be loved when one of the two must be lacking."

That is the Bush approach in a nutshell. And sometimes it works. Certainly, the growing fear of hostile intent was a factor in helping to induce Col. Moammar Gaddafi to plead no contest in the court of world opinion and announce that Libya, hobbled badly by years of United States economic sanctions, and possibly fearing deposed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's fate, would dismantle its weapons of mass destruction programs. Chalk one up for the good guys.

It surely was also no mere coincidence that just days later, the otherwise reclusive Stalinist government in North Korea announced it was inviting a delegation of U.S. citizens to its Yongbyon nuclear weapons complex, from which United Nations inspectors had been rudely expelled more than a year ago. Presumably, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il figured, if Col. Gaddafi is fearful, maybe he should be too.

He should. For the Bush people calculate that no matter what they do, they are unlikely to be loved in Pyongyang, so they might as well be feared. Thus, the U.S. is becoming the feared but unloved Prince of contemporary world politics. And, in this mien, the Bush administration is scarcely uncomfortable.

Indeed, Machiavelli might approve. After all, he wrote: "Men are less hesitant about harming someone who makes himself loved than one who makes himself feared."

Asia generally accepts that the present Prince is the U.S., and that under President George W. Bush, at least, it is to be more feared than loved. But Asia also generally accepts that the Prince of the future, at least in its region, will probably be China.

What kind of future Prince will China be? Only feared -- or loved as well? Students of Machiavelli note that he also warned about the limitations of a policy based mainly on fear. "A prince must nevertheless make himself feared in such a manner that he will avoid hatred, even if he does not acquire love; since to be feared and not to be hated can very well be combined."

Watching China now is fascinating, precisely because its new identity is still a work in progress. At home, it is throwing out collectivist orthodoxies like embarrassing old photographs; in international relations, it is playing the good-guy role at every chance.

In Asia, Chinese diplomacy is becoming more active and nuanced. It is muffling its bark over territorial disputes with its neighbors, launching charm offensives to take the edge off the sting of its successful region-wide export-sales campaigns, especially in Southeast Asia, and, of course, has been pitching in to help mediate the serious friction between North Korea and the U.S.

On the basis of this fragmentary and preliminary evidence, the emerging giant shows every indication that it may desire to become a nation that is loved as well as feared. That's not necessarily bad for the West, to be sure.

As part of its love/fear approach, Beijing might well choose to upgrade its long-docile profile at the UN to help restore the dwindling collegiality among members. Up to now, China, one of the five permanent members with veto powers, has either kept its head down or at most played the harmless neutral game. China could and should do more, for this vital organization is currently shackled by the mutual hostility of its most powerful member states.

And without the cooperation of its greatest powers, comments former UN undersecretary-general Brian Urquhart, the potency of the Security Council, the UN's political driver, is not likely to rise above pathetic.

A Security Council led in the future by a Prince that wishes to be loved as well as feared could well trigger the political resurrection of the UN. Beijing -- what do you think? It's a prince of an idea.