China is changing its security calculus

Dan Ewing, Nixon Center, Washington, D.C., The Korea Herald, Asia News Network, Seoul

The events of Sept. 11 and their aftermath have changed China's security calculus and forced China to reevaluate its geopolitical position. In response to shifting strategic landscape, Beijing has launched an uncharacteristically concerted diplomatic effort toward her neighbors. With President Bush's Beijing trip one month away, the United States should concentrate on working with China to promote regional stability.

Before the terrorist attacks, China saw its strategic situation as gradually improving. Relations with Russia and Central Asia were deepening, Pakistan remained close, and tensions between Washington and Beijing were receding from their 2001 high. Beijing wanted to expand its Central Asian role and limit American influence. However, the attacks and America's aggressive military response have caused a chain reaction of events that have expanded America's regional presence and increased Chinese security analysts' fears of encirclement.

To start, despite the recently signed Sino-Russian Friendship Treaty and professed unity in opposing hegemony (read: American imperialism), Moscow quickly offered broad support for America's military campaign. Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to work closely with the United States demonstrated the compact's flimsiness.

China's Central Asian neighbors are drawing closer to America. Pakistan, the closest thing China has to an ally, met America's requests for use of bases and its airspace. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan offered invaluable assistance to American forces, and Kyrgyzstan appears willing to support a long-term U.S. military presence. In Afghanistan, a relatively pro-American government is emerging that might have reduced ties with Pakistan, potentially limiting China's influence.

Japan, China's historic East Asian rival, has been stirring. Wanting to play a more active role in the anti-terror campaign than its Gulf War check-writing, Tokyo dispatched naval vessels to support the logistics of the Afghan war despite stretching its Constitutional limits on the use of military forces. Moreover, the Japanese navy recently sank a suspected North Korean ship. Ever worried about Japanese remilitarization, China's People's Daily warned that the Japan is "sending a strong signal that it intends to be a military superpower."

For China's defense planners, any one of these events would be alarming, but it is America's actions that may concern them most.

America has yet again fought a high-tech war, hammered its opponent, and toppled a foreign government, while sustaining only limited U.S. casualties. American troops and some of its biggest guns are deployed in China's backyard. Moreover, the conflict marks the first time U.S. combat forces have fought on China's borders since the Korean and Vietnam wars -- both of which were extremely disturbing for China's leaders. Some in Beijing worry that these troops may remain in the region indefinitely. With U.S. troops in South Korea, Japan and Central Asia, some Chinese feel that the United States is "encircling" China to prevent its emergence as a strong nation.

None of the above should imply that China opposes America's response to the September terrorist attacks. Indeed, Beijing has publicly supported the war on terrorism and has shared intelligence with America. Still, the geopolitical landscape surrounding China is changing at a dizzying speed.

However, the current international environment offers Beijing several potential opportunities. First, the war on terrorism offers China a chance to cooperate with America, thereby improving relations. Second, Beijing has used the current mood to strengthen its crackdown on China's own small minority of ethnic separatists. Next, Beijing likely hopes that America's struggle with international terrorism may divert some energy away from its Asia-Pacific focused military restructuring.

In addition, America's campaign in Afghanistan is a perfect case study for China's defense planners who are likely taking furious notes on the composition, interaction, logistics and effectiveness of U.S. forces. Furthermore, America's employment of prototypes previews the U.S. military's modernization trajectory. Stunned by America's high-tech military power in the Gulf War, China can use Afghanistan as a measuring stick to determine whether the technological gap between the Chinese and American military is narrowing or widening.

In an attempt to stabilize the fluid international situation, Beijing is pushing an uncommonly comprehensive diplomatic agenda to strengthen ties with key regional players. President Jiang Zemin was quick to promise millions of dollars in aid to Afghanistan and wants to reopen China's embassy in Kabul this month. Jiang also traveled to Myanmar -- China's close supporter and a strategic regional player -- and promised to increase economic ties.

China has also focused on improving relations with South Asia. Days after Jiang visited Myanmar, President Musharraf of Pakistan met with him in Beijing. The two leaders signed economic agreements and Musharraf reassured Beijing that "the cornerstone of Pakistan's foreign policy is its close association and relationship with China." Furthermore, during China's first official visit to India in over a decade, Premier Zhu Rongji and Indian leaders jointly pledged to fight terrorism and expand trade.

China has also seized an opportunity to strengthen relations with her western neighbors. The Shanghai Cooperative Organization (comprised of China, Russia, Kyrgizstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazahkstan) recently concluded a meeting in Beijing that reaffirmed its commitment to combat terrorism. Although only marginally productive, the meeting highlights China's efforts to reassert its influence.

Like other nations, China is bewildered by the rapidly changing security environment, but there are unexpected opportunities for Beijing to strengthen diplomatic relations with the U.S. and others. As President Bush prepares for his trip to Beijing next month, the United States should note China's security concerns and focus on working with China to promote America's goal of greater regional stability.