China and the U.S.: Implications for SE Asia

China and the U.S.: Implications for SE Asia

By Karim Raslan

KUALA LUMPUR (JP): The Republican administration has taken the
high road with China. Reversing the Clinton White House's more
accommodating approach and egged on by aging Cold War warriors
such as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfield, Bush has telegraphed
his disregard for China's traditional concerns -- Tibet and
Taiwan -- by allowing Taiwanese President Chen Sui Bian to make a
stop over in New York and meeting with the Dalai Lama in person.

With the two global giants engaged in an awkward game of
brinkmanship, the implications for Southeast Asia are worrying.
Moreover last month's IMF bail-out of long-time NATO-ally Turkey
and the continued mishandling of Indonesia by the IMF and World
Bank underlines American strategic thinking.

Essentially, Washington D.C. is saying that the world's third
largest democracy and therefore Southeast Asia (because the fate
of both are intimately intertwined) are dispensable. Of course a
bipolar world does offer certain advantages. Malaysia, for
example can maintain its "gadfly diplomacy" in this environment.

However, escalating tensions may force us to choose between
China or the United States and that would be very painful. The
ideal scenario for us is a situation where we can play the two
behemoths off against one another.

Whatever the case, the long-term trend points towards a
decrease in American power as China grows to occupy what it has
long considered to be its rightful place in Asia-Pacific. The
nations of Southeast Asia must adapt to China's mounting economic
and political influence: We have no choice.

Certain countries -- the Philippines -- with their strong
American relations and exposure to China's territorial claims in
the South China Sea will find this development difficult to
manage. On the other hand Burma -- firmly ensconced within the
Chinese ambit -- will barely notice the rise in tension.

Frankly there is nothing we can do to lower the temperature.
We are merely observers in a contest that will determine
leadership in the Asia Pacific. Our views are of no consequence
in either Beijing or Washington D.C. So rather than waste time
bemoaning the situation we should prepare for our own survival.

There are five strategies that Southeast Asia should adopt in
the present environment. Firstly, the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations must be strengthened; secondly we have to adopt an
impartial position as between the two behemoths whilst seeking to
balance their influence by encouraging Japan, Europe and/or India
to participate and engage in regional affairs; thirdly, we must
be mindful of China's primary strategic concerns -- viz the
integrity of its sovereign territory; fourthly, we have to
realize that the Americans with their remarkably immature,
ignorant and emotional political elite and irresponsible media
are subject to weird oscillations in foreign policy; fifthly,
that our respective Chinese communities hold the key to our
engagement with Beijing.

Firstly, ASEAN is much maligned. However the gathering contest
will force us to revisit the regional institution. Now, more than
ever, there will be an even greater appreciation of ASEAN's
potential. We cannot squander this opportunity.

Furthermore it should be remembered that trade and economics
are a crucial part of geo-politics. As such Singapore's bilateral
Free Trade Agreements do present a serious challenge to ASEAN
unity. Member states must remember that no one will be able to
negotiate the impending diplomatic storms on their own.

We must learn to act in concert especially vis-a-vis the two
behemoths. Interestingly the first foreign forays for both Thai
Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra and Filipino Vice President,
Guinguona have been within the region (to Malaysia, in fact). We
have to rebuild ASEAN and prepare ourselves for the impending
confrontation over the Spratlys with China and human rights with
the U.S.

Secondly we have to develop a dispassionate and unemotional
manner when handling the two giants because they will be erratic
and confrontational. It goes without saying that we cannot afford
to allow ourselves to be dependent on either one militarily,
economically or strategically. Southeast Asia is now overly
reliant on the American export market. This must change. We have
to diversify our partners by buttressing our relations with
Japan, Europe and now India both politically and economically.

Significantly the Japanese are now talking about amending
Article 9 of their Constitution (enshrining their pacificism and
non-aggression). This is to be encouraged. The Japanese must play
a more responsible role in the region. They cannot continue
behind a US shield. Similarly the Europeans -- especially the
Spanish, Italians, French and Germans -- must be courted
aggressively. Their growing irritation with the Americans will
make this process relatively straight-forward.

Thirdly, we must never forget that China sees Taiwan and Tibet
as integral parts of their territory. This is not expansionism,
nor is it a Greater China ploy. As the economy grows and
prosperity increases, nationalism (replacing Marxism or Maoism)
has become the source of the Communist party's legitimacy.

The totemic idea of Zhongguo with its impressive cultural and
linguistic heritage will become all-powerful. American moves to
encircle and contain China will outrage domestic public opinion
and Southeast Asia cannot afford to be seen as a party to
America's attempts to block China's manifest destiny. The fall-
out for us will make the demonstrations after the bombing of the
Chinese Embassy in Belgrade look like a tea party.

Fourthly, Southeast Asia also has to be wary of the remarkable
stupidity and ignorance of the American political elite and their
parochial media. As public discourse in the U.S. continues to
plummet in terms of quality and discernment, the foreign policy
debate will fall a victim of pollsters and knee-jerk, right
wingers from the think-tanks that have proliferated in Washington
D.C.

Witness the lack of consistency and continuity in policy
towards South Korea's "Sunshine Policy". The dumbing down of
politics means that such weird and unpredictable oscillations
will become the norm rather than the exception.

Finally, each of the nations of Southeast Asia contain
sizable ethnic Chinese communities. We must ensure that the Hua
chiao (overseas Chinese) are more fully integrated into society
because they will provide a crucial conduit in terms of business,
culture and political insight into the workings of Beijing and
Shanghai. At the end of the day Southeast Asia must acknowledge
history and geography.

There have been centuries of interaction between the Middle
Kingdom and the region, stretching back to the days of the Nanhai
trade, Admiral Cheng Ho, the Malacca Sultanate, Annam, Siam and
Champa.

The cultural bonds are deep and enduring, and we ignore them
at our peril.

The writer is a Kuala Lumpur-based lawyer and columnist.