China and the U.S.: Implications for SE Asia

By Karim Raslan

KUALA LUMPUR (JP): The Republican administration has taken the high road with China. Reversing the Clinton White House's more accommodating approach and egged on by aging Cold War warriors such as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfield, Bush has telegraphed his disregard for China's traditional concerns -- Tibet and Taiwan -- by allowing Taiwanese President Chen Sui Bian to make a stop over in New York and meeting with the Dalai Lama in person.

With the two global giants engaged in an awkward game of brinkmanship, the implications for Southeast Asia are worrying. Moreover last month's IMF bail-out of long-time NATO-ally Turkey and the continued mishandling of Indonesia by the IMF and World Bank underlines American strategic thinking.

Essentially, Washington D.C. is saying that the world's third largest democracy and therefore Southeast Asia (because the fate of both are intimately intertwined) are dispensable. Of course a bipolar world does offer certain advantages. Malaysia, for example can maintain its "gadfly diplomacy" in this environment.

However, escalating tensions may force us to choose between China or the United States and that would be very painful. The ideal scenario for us is a situation where we can play the two behemoths off against one another.

Whatever the case, the long-term trend points towards a decrease in American power as China grows to occupy what it has long considered to be its rightful place in Asia-Pacific. The nations of Southeast Asia must adapt to China's mounting economic and political influence: We have no choice.

Certain countries -- the Philippines -- with their strong American relations and exposure to China's territorial claims in the South China Sea will find this development difficult to manage. On the other hand Burma -- firmly ensconced within the Chinese ambit -- will barely notice the rise in tension.

Frankly there is nothing we can do to lower the temperature. We are merely observers in a contest that will determine leadership in the Asia Pacific. Our views are of no consequence in either Beijing or Washington D.C. So rather than waste time bemoaning the situation we should prepare for our own survival.

There are five strategies that Southeast Asia should adopt in the present environment. Firstly, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations must be strengthened; secondly we have to adopt an impartial position as between the two behemoths whilst seeking to balance their influence by encouraging Japan, Europe and/or India to participate and engage in regional affairs; thirdly, we must be mindful of China's primary strategic concerns -- viz the integrity of its sovereign territory; fourthly, we have to realize that the Americans with their remarkably immature, ignorant and emotional political elite and irresponsible media are subject to weird oscillations in foreign policy; fifthly, that our respective Chinese communities hold the key to our engagement with Beijing.

Firstly, ASEAN is much maligned. However the gathering contest will force us to revisit the regional institution. Now, more than ever, there will be an even greater appreciation of ASEAN's potential. We cannot squander this opportunity.

Furthermore it should be remembered that trade and economics are a crucial part of geo-politics. As such Singapore's bilateral Free Trade Agreements do present a serious challenge to ASEAN unity. Member states must remember that no one will be able to negotiate the impending diplomatic storms on their own.

We must learn to act in concert especially vis-a-vis the two behemoths. Interestingly the first foreign forays for both Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra and Filipino Vice President, Guinguona have been within the region (to Malaysia, in fact). We have to rebuild ASEAN and prepare ourselves for the impending confrontation over the Spratlys with China and human rights with the U.S.

Secondly we have to develop a dispassionate and unemotional manner when handling the two giants because they will be erratic and confrontational. It goes without saying that we cannot afford to allow ourselves to be dependent on either one militarily, economically or strategically. Southeast Asia is now overly reliant on the American export market. This must change. We have to diversify our partners by buttressing our relations with Japan, Europe and now India both politically and economically.

Significantly the Japanese are now talking about amending Article 9 of their Constitution (enshrining their pacificism and non-aggression). This is to be encouraged. The Japanese must play a more responsible role in the region. They cannot continue behind a US shield. Similarly the Europeans -- especially the Spanish, Italians, French and Germans -- must be courted aggressively. Their growing irritation with the Americans will make this process relatively straight-forward.

Thirdly, we must never forget that China sees Taiwan and Tibet as integral parts of their territory. This is not expansionism, nor is it a Greater China ploy. As the economy grows and prosperity increases, nationalism (replacing Marxism or Maoism) has become the source of the Communist party's legitimacy.

The totemic idea of Zhongguo with its impressive cultural and linguistic heritage will become all-powerful. American moves to encircle and contain China will outrage domestic public opinion and Southeast Asia cannot afford to be seen as a party to America's attempts to block China's manifest destiny. The fall- out for us will make the demonstrations after the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade look like a tea party.

Fourthly, Southeast Asia also has to be wary of the remarkable stupidity and ignorance of the American political elite and their parochial media. As public discourse in the U.S. continues to plummet in terms of quality and discernment, the foreign policy debate will fall a victim of pollsters and knee-jerk, right wingers from the think-tanks that have proliferated in Washington D.C.

Witness the lack of consistency and continuity in policy towards South Korea's "Sunshine Policy". The dumbing down of politics means that such weird and unpredictable oscillations will become the norm rather than the exception.

Finally, each of the nations of Southeast Asia contain sizable ethnic Chinese communities. We must ensure that the Hua chiao (overseas Chinese) are more fully integrated into society because they will provide a crucial conduit in terms of business, culture and political insight into the workings of Beijing and Shanghai. At the end of the day Southeast Asia must acknowledge history and geography.

There have been centuries of interaction between the Middle Kingdom and the region, stretching back to the days of the Nanhai trade, Admiral Cheng Ho, the Malacca Sultanate, Annam, Siam and Champa.

The cultural bonds are deep and enduring, and we ignore them at our peril.

The writer is a Kuala Lumpur-based lawyer and columnist.