China and its Central Asian policy
Zhang Zuqian, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore
No country in or around Central Asia has risen to criticize Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov for his excessive use of force on his people.
According to Newsweek magazine, some Russian officials even made the improbable claim that outside forces were responsible for the protest that was put down so harshly by Karimov. China has implicitly condoned the actions of the Uzbek leader. And Karimov had actually paid a state visit to China only last week.
Chinese diplomacy has been wildly successful in recent years. Successful, that is, except with regard to the countries of the former Soviet Union. Yet again this is proved by Karimov's visit.
Central Asia has long been economically backward, geographically closed and dominated heavily by Russia. With rampant corruption and abuse of power there, China's access to natural resources in Central Asia has been limited and unstable.
Chinese businessmen are afraid to invest there because they are not protected by local laws and regulations. And then there are worries about Islamic militancy. Clearly, the status quo does not serve China's interests. Equally clear is that China cannot continue with its prevailing policy towards the region.
Thus, Beijing should have left itself some room for future diplomatic maneuvering following recent events. Several analysts, for example, believe that within the next few years, autocratic rule across the former Soviet Union will end.
When this happens, we are likely to see the emergence of new political forces that are more democratic, more market oriented and more sympathetic towards the West. The result would be a Central Asia that will become more promising economically, more stable politically and less dominated by Russia.
But by failing to criticize Karimov, China risks alienating those who might soon constitute the main political force in the region.
To be sure, China has many political and security considerations with regard to Central Asia. That is part of its calculations in its response to the recent events in Uzbekistan. But arguably, China could better achieve its ends by working with the new local political forces that are believed soon to emerge, and with external actors such as the United States, NATO, the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
It will not be difficult to contemplate China cooperating with these parties as it has already done so in other parts of the world. Indeed, all these parties have a joint interest in maintaining peace and stability in Central Asia and preventing radical Islamic forces from seizing power. There is no question that they can work together to promote the emergence of stable political forces in Uzbekistan and other nations in the region.
The writer is affiliated with the Shanghai Institute for International Studies.