Chen's win in Taiwan reflects aspiration for self-determination
Chen's win in Taiwan reflects aspiration for self-determination
Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok
Incumbent President Chen Sui-bian's razor-thin victory on
Saturday signals two broad but contradictory trends on the island
of 23 million people -- a growing desire for self-determination
versus increasing economic dependency on China.
In the coming months, leaders in Beijing and Taipei have to
handle this dilemma with utmost finesse. Any misstep would be
costly because it could trigger the use of force. But this worst-
case scenario could be prevented if both sides across the Taiwan
Straits commence the formal dialogue that has eluded them over
the past four years.
While the failure of the much-feared national referendum on
whether to boost Taiwan's military was an obvious setback for
Chen, it could open the door for China to kick off formal talks
without losing face. The referendum failed because too few
Taiwanese, less than half of those who voted in the election,
participated in it. This suggests that deep down the Taiwanese do
not want to risk the wrath of China, preferring the business-as-
usual climate that only Beijing can guarantee.
The status quo also serves China's immediate national
interests as it continues with economic reform and consolidates
its international standing and influence.
Despite China's preference for a coalition of the Chinese
Nationalist Party and People First Party, the mainland has no
choice now but to negotiate with the reigning Democratic
Progressive Party. Further delay would be mutually destructive,
as the island's nationalism is on a runaway train while calls for
the use of force by hard-liners in Beijing will gain momentum.
Facing this tricky situation, diplomats and trade
representatives in Taipei are quite ambiguous, if not as divided
as the Taiwanese. Those from Western countries have been
supportive of Taiwan's democracy, but quite a few of them have
been weary of Chen's gung-ho presidency, viewing his national
referendum as a provocation and an indirect declaration of
independence. Before the ballot, the U.S., France and Russia went
on the record to express concerns about the referendum.
They believe that military options could not be ruled out if
Chen becomes more adamant about taking the road to independence.
After all, Beijing realizes that Taiwan has been drifting away
from the mainland, forging its own identity and a vibrant
democracy.
Chen plans to introduce constitutional amendments in 2006
along with plenty of policies that would enhance Taiwan's
national identity. The longer China waits the more difficult it
will be to unite with Taiwan as more islanders start feeling they
are Taiwanese rather than Chinese.
When push comes to shove China has several options for waging
both psychological and physical war on Taiwan, several Western
diplomats here said. Blockades in the Taiwan Straits and the
seizure of islands near the mainland are a possible initial
option. Then, if Taiwan does not back down from its independence
quest, China can tighten the screws by firing missiles at key
coastal industrial cities such as Kaohsiung before hitting the
main targets such as Taipei.
If that happens, the U.S., bound by the Taiwan Relations Act
of 1979, must come to the rescue. According to one high-ranking
diplomat, who asked not to be identified, the island's defenses
would last only two weeks against a Chinese military offensive.
If the Taiwanese forces succumb quickly it would be a fait
accompli for China. However, if they can fight for a sustained
period, he said, the U.S. would be obliged to assist Taiwan by
bringing the war to the mainland.
It is a frightening but realistic scenario -- something that
has been discussed widely among military strategists in the
U.S. and Europe. Interestingly, random interviews with young
Taiwanese revealed that they believe the U.S. will come to the
rescue if Chinese missiles hit their island.
Unlike their Western peers, diplomats and trade
representatives from Southeast Asia were unanimous in their
preference for the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomingtang,
which they see as the key to peace and stability in the region.
They are happy with the current state of ASEAN-China relations.
Treating Taiwan as part of China, it is natural that they do not
stress the growing Taiwanese identity and increased
democratization.
Chen's return will further weaken the KMT and have long-term
implications on the island's political and economic landscape
that can affect the ASEAN-China friendship.
A small number of the ASEAN representatives said that ASEAN
must now try to bring the China policy in tune with the
developments in Taiwan, moving toward a more realistic approach
to the One-China principle. For the past three decades, the
grouping has been adhering to this principle while continuing to
maintain non-political relations -- especially trade, economic
and cultural ties -- with the island China regards as a renegade
province.
They have warned that ASEAN is losing Taiwanese investment to
China, which has increased manifold. Taiwanese investment in
Southeast Asia has been decreasing markedly, except in Vietnam,
which the Taiwanese policymakers call the second China. Taiwan is
now China's biggest investor and 47 percent of its exports go to
the mainland.
Facing Chen's aggressive diplomacy and the referendum, China
had approached countries in the West and this region to urge them
not to support the referendum. By doing so China
internationalized an issue that it had insisted was an internal
affair.
Earlier this month, the three-day World China Unity Conference
was held in Bangkok with the blessing of the Thai Ministry for
Foreign Affairs. More than one thousand huaqiao (overseas
Chinese) from more than two dozen countries attended the event.
They issued a strong resolution denouncing Chen and the
referendum.
Like China, ASEAN has to deal with Taiwan under the DPP.
Increased uncertainty about China-Taiwan relations is a threat to
ASEAN's economy. A military conflict between the two would be
disastrous.