Chen still needs to earn his stripes

By Benjamin Kang Lim

TAIPEI (Reuters): A year after ending half a century of one- party rule, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is still struggling to dispel doubts he can govern or should be re-elected when his four-year term expires in 2004.

Chen has yet to find a way out of a vicious cycle in which the island's main opposition Nationalist Party -- which he routed in presidential elections last year -- has thwarted his attempts at policy change at almost every turn since.

"It looks like the government has had more failures than successes," Soochow University political science Emile Sheng said in an interview.

The shadow of the Nationalist Party -- the world's richest political party -- still looms large on Taiwan's political land social landscape despite its humiliating election setback.

The pro-nuclear Nationalists teamed up with two splinter parties and arm-twisted Chen last month into reversing his bold decision to make good on a campaign pledge to shelve construction of the island's fourth nuclear power plant.

"He didn't pick the right fight," Sheng said. Media surveys show those opposed to the partially built US$5.5 billion plant are in a minority.

Chen's rule has been messy, marred by a string of policy flip- flops, political gaffes and rifts in his own Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

"The DPP was not a bad opposition party, but there are legitimate doubts whether it can rule," Sheng said.

"It needs to turn slogans into action and policy."

Political gridlock and uncertainty have dented business confidence and sent share prices into a tailspin. The island's jobless rate is climbing amid an economic slowdown.

Chou Hsi-wei, a deputy in the opposition People First Party, added: "Too many factions in the DPP -- this is his worst enemy."

The cabinet has undergone three shake-ups since May.

Critics also blame Chen's feisty style for his predicament.

"There are problems with his personality, leadership and judgment calls," Chou, the lawmaker, said.

The 51-year-old president, Taiwan's youngest, has rarely dodged a fight in his career as a lawyer, firebrand lawmaker and Taipei mayor.

He has mellowed since assuming the island's highest office, but still gets into petty tit-for-tats with rivals.

But supporters say opposition legislators are deliberately hostile lest Chen be virtually assured of re-election if his popularity soars.

"The opposition has been doing all it can to harass him and make things difficult for him," said Parris Chang, a DPP legislator and former political science professor at Pennsylvania State University.

In a meeting with a group of supporters on Saturday, Chen asked for "more time", saying it took his predecessor two years to get things going and that there are fewer obstacles now than when he first took office.

Taiwan's first democratic transfer of power in more than five decades has cost the island dearly.

"The society has paid a high price for him to learn," said Leonard Hsueh, research chief at SinoPac Securities.

"Economic losses caused by politics have been tremendous."

A survey by independent cable news network TVBS in February showed Chen's popularity hit a record low 34 percent after the island's worst oil spill in decades, down from 77 percent last July.

Chen is counting on year-end parliamentary elections to turn the tables, but analysts said Chen's best bet could be a coalition with the opposition because the fledgling People First Party is likely to emerge the biggest winner.

Currently, the DPP holds just 66 seats in the 220-member legislature. Analysts doubt the DPP will be able to snatch the majority from the Nationalists in the elections because of a dearth of prominent electable candidates.

Chen scored points by staving off a belligerent China with soothing words. Beijing, which has threatened to attack if Taiwan declared independence, was alarmed by Chen's election victory.

He swung to the center of the political spectrum by softening his separatist stand and tried to accommodate Beijing, but it remains deeply suspicious of his pro-independence past and cold- shouldered him.

"Cross-strait relations have worried us the most after the DPP came to power," said Hsueh, the securities analyst. "The government's mainland policy is too slow."

Chen ended in January a decades-old ban on direct transport links between Taiwan's frontline islands and China's Fujian province, but Beijing has isolated him and instead wooed the island's opposition and business leaders.