Mon, 20 Dec 1999

Chechnya's humanitarian calamity

Very few of Grozny's remaining residents seem to use the so- called humanitarian corridors to leave the city. According to most indicators, the talk of these corridors is a bluff, as are the promises that only so-called bandits will be attacked. Terror bombs usually don't make a difference between "good" and "bad."

The humanitarian catastrophe continues. That the Norwegian foreign minister Knut Vollebaek, presently chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, has been granted access to the area is a carefully calculated tactical retreat Russia can afford to neutralize the pressure from EU, if possible.

The visit has no real meaning as long as the Russian side doesn't show any will to cease its bloody war of revenge.

Russia has avoided repeating some of the mistakes from the last war in Chechnya -- while the Chechnyan side (not necessarily the country's political leadership) has made mistakes, most notably by trying to invade Dagestan, which has weakened its credibility in the rest of the world.

That does not lead to an automatic conclusion that Russia would be close to a final victory. The Chechnyans are known to be skilled guerrilla warriors and Russia might very well be forced to (once again) realize it's much easier to start a war against such an enemy than to end it.

--Upsala Nya Tidning, Uppsala, Sweden,