Chaotic Indonesia is waiting for 'messiah'

Satish Mishra, Head United Nations Support, Facility for Indonesian Recovey, Jakarta, satish.mishra@undp.org

These are confusing times. Indonesia is a country praised for its religious tolerance. Yet it is rocked by religious and ethnic strife. For a quarter of a century it was the home of one of the world's great economic miracles. Today it is in the midst of its deepest economic crisis. Until only five years ago, it was ruled by a proud military, supporting a single autocrat. Today, power is dispersed between the executive and the parliament and between central and regional government.

Only yesterday, foreign business and foreign personnel were welcomed as the harbingers of technology and enterprise. Today, they are suspected and feared as the precursors of a new global Imperium. Until recently, the Indonesian worker was thought as hard working and disciplined. Today, he is accused of being both unruly and unproductive. Only a short time ago, the world seemed to be knocking at Indonesia's door looking for opportunities for new business and new deals. Today, investors fly to safety.

Yesterday's miracle and yesterday's political order seem to have been consigned to the warehouse of fond relics and historical memorabilia.

Is it any wonder that "uncertainty" represents the defining characteristic of the Indonesian national psyche? This uncertainty is combined with a feeling of powerlessness. Around half of Indonesia's 210 million people live on the edge of survival. Thousands stream into the cities in search for jobs and a future. In some such as Jakarta, they see new construction and new cars. They see shopping malls filled with beautiful things and equally beautiful, made-up women. They wonder why they can no longer make ends meet when so many have so much. As another month of Ramadan draws near, the city of Jakarta considers shutting the doors to new migrants coming to the city looking for work.

Uncertainty and powerlessness is a dangerous cocktail. It is especially dangerous when it comes on the heels of a generation of economic growth and expanding job opportunities. The danger is compounded when economic growth is followed by sudden collapse and a feeling of national humiliation. This combination of humiliation, powerlessness and uncertainty has spawned its own demons. Often demons such as these have devoured not only their own societies but much of the world around them. The history of so many dictatorships is the history of frustrated public hopes.

The prolonged economic slowdown, the demise of established institutions and of familiar ways of doing things has led to a hunger for certainty. This is reflected in the frequent references to a strong leader who will provide order and certainty. It is also reflected in an open lamentation that Indonesia's new political system has failed to generate the firmness and political will to deal with jobs, foreigners, big business, military, trade unions, national unity and Uncle Sam.

You can take your own pick driven by your own personal prejudices. Taken against this stream of emotion and frustration democracy is often seen to be a luxury only the rich countries can afford. For many, growth first; democracy later, seems to be the only way out of the current impasse. This is a widely prevalent view shared by both Indonesian and foreigner alike.

History is never as simple as that. Societies might elect presidents. But they do not choose benevolent dictatorships. Autocracies are foisted. They represent instruments of control and privilege. They constrain and contain, not liberate and encourage. A preference for dictatorship is a sad obsession. It ignores the evidence of history. Look for a Soeharto and you might find a Mobutu or Amin. Equate order and discipline with economic growth. You might end with economic collapse and ruin. Search for national unity within the confines of military supremacy. You might find instead latent dissent and open rebellion.

Economic crises and collapses are divisive times. They exacerbate social stresses and fault-lines. They destroy trust and social capital. The great task of the recovery is to rebuild this capital, to heal open wounds, to convince the citizen that the costs of the economic demise will be shared by everyone in a socially just way.

Social justice has to be a building block of recovery. It cannot be a mere footnote to growth oriented policies. Doubtless growth and a return to prosperity might ease the cultural and political shock of Indonesia's systemic transition. But, the secret of future stable growth lies in a direct approach to social divisions. Growth before democracy is a false doctrine. Democracy is a tool for a socially-just sharing of the burdens of hard and divisive times. Without a new social consensus, sustained growth along with the benevolent dictator is but a wistful dream of the desperate. The new economic literature on the link between democratic governance and economic growth presents an important component of the logic of democracy.

Part two of this article explores this underlying logic of democracy and outlines some crucial next steps in the Indonesian transition.

The opinions expressed in this article are strictly personal.