Changing times: A model for the 2009 elections?

Rob Goodfellow, CAPSTRANS Visiting Fellow, University of Wollongong
New South Wales, Australia, sujoko@ozemail.com.au

Endy M. Bayuni, Deputy Chief Editor, The Jakarta Post, made the telling observation this week that: "When ballots were cast in the General Election held across Indonesia on Monday, most voters did not know why they were selecting a particular party or certain candidates". At best April 5 was an uneventful Pesta Demokrasi or "fiesta of democracy", mostly characterized by uninformed choices.

At worst it was a cynical policy -- free exercise in vote buying and a reminder of the pervasive and residual influence of New Order social engineering. April 5 was in fact a victory of form over substance. It was, as students in Yogyakarta are fond of saying -- Demo-krazy.

As Bayuni suggests, in the future voters must know what candidates promise to do -- and hold them constantly accountable to these promises once they are in office.

Last week, at a regional university in North Sumatra, an exciting experiment in informing voters about making political choices was carried out. The results of this exercise suggest that there is hope for the continued development of a democratic spirit in Indonesia that extends beyond meaningless slogans and rent-a-crowd party-political theater.

Indeed the results indicate that Indonesian's next legislative ballot, scheduled for 2009, could actually produce election outcomes based on debate and policy rather than on just gyrating dangdut performers, free T-shirts, key-rings and cash.

The ceramah or "presentation" involved 300 university students enrolled in undergraduate information technology courses. Most of the students were not urban-dwellers but came from a poor rural and remote region of North Sumatra. A senior retired government figure, not aligned to any particular party, gave a one hour lecture outlining the history of the 1957 and 1999 general elections and the recent reforms to the Indonesian electoral system.

This was followed by an explanation of the political philosophies and policies of the major parties represented in that area of North Sumatra, namely the PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle), Golkar Party, PKB (the Nahdlatul Ulama-based National Awakening Party) and PDS (the Christian- based Prosperous Peace Party).

Data was collected on student/voter intentions before the ceramah. This was followed by an open forum question and debate opportunity. Post-ceramah data was collected to determine if there had been any change in student/voter sentiment. The same exercise was repeated to include intentions in respect to the most popular presidential candidates.

On April 5, 2004 most of the large political parties depended on voter confusion to maintain the status quo. However post- ceramah results of the North Sumatra exercise indicate that a well-informed electorate is capable of changing their voting intentions based on clearly explained party platforms, and further, that policy substance is actually very attractive to ordinary voters.

In the first instance the ceramah produced a dramatic decline in voter apathy. In terms of a clear indication for a party of choice, the numbers fell from 66 students who were undecided (out of 300) to 40. In terms of a choice of President this fell from 65 to 23.

This result was reflected in an increased vote for Golkar, namely 22 to 54, and PKB, namely 2 to 9. Support for the PDI-P fell markedly from 51 to 42. This statistic appears to have been reflected in the April 5 poll.

In the section restricted to presidential candidates, the clear winners were Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, 45 to 101, followed by Akbar Tandjung, 4 to 18. Amien Rais scored a slight increase, 4 to 7. Megawati was the big looser with a drop in support from 33 to 19.

The Muslim-based PKS (Prosperous Justice Party), one of the most organized of the grass-roots parties on April 5, was not well-represented in this particular area of North Sumatra and was therefore statistically insignificant.

As Bayuni, wrote of the poll this week, "most voters remained in the dark over their options and were largely unaware of the qualities of the political parties, their platforms and most of their candidates". As predicted, the emerging results from April 5, 2004 indicate that voters supported the familiar. Bayuni, quoting Shakespeare, suggests that "familiarity breeds contempt". However, also quoting Shakespeare's Hamlet, (appropriately addressing his old university friends Rosencrantz and Guildenstern in Act 2: Scene 2), I would optimistically suggest: "What a piece of work is a man. How noble in reason. How infinite in faculty. In form and moving how express and admirable".

The North Sumatra experience indicates that while 2004 has been dominated by form, 2009 may yet prove to be an election of substance. Quoting the American folk singer Bob Dylan, the take- home message of the North Sumatra student/voter experiment for political leaders in Indonesia might be: "You better start swimming or you'll sink like a stone, for the times they are a- changing".