Changing times: A model for the 2009 elections?

Changing times: A model for the 2009 elections?

Rob Goodfellow, CAPSTRANS Visiting Fellow, University of Wollongong

New South Wales, Australia, sujoko@ozemail.com.au

Endy M. Bayuni, Deputy Chief Editor, The Jakarta Post, made
the telling observation this week that: "When ballots were cast
in the General Election held across Indonesia on Monday, most
voters did not know why they were selecting a particular party or
certain candidates". At best April 5 was an uneventful Pesta
Demokrasi or "fiesta of democracy", mostly characterized by
uninformed choices.

At worst it was a cynical policy -- free exercise in vote
buying and a reminder of the pervasive and residual influence of
New Order social engineering. April 5 was in fact a victory of
form over substance. It was, as students in Yogyakarta are fond
of saying -- Demo-krazy.

As Bayuni suggests, in the future voters must know what
candidates promise to do -- and hold them constantly accountable
to these promises once they are in office.

Last week, at a regional university in North Sumatra, an
exciting experiment in informing voters about making political
choices was carried out. The results of this exercise suggest
that there is hope for the continued development of a democratic
spirit in Indonesia that extends beyond meaningless slogans and
rent-a-crowd party-political theater.

Indeed the results indicate that Indonesian's next legislative
ballot, scheduled for 2009, could actually produce election
outcomes based on debate and policy rather than on just gyrating
dangdut performers, free T-shirts, key-rings and cash.

The ceramah or "presentation" involved 300 university students
enrolled in undergraduate information technology courses. Most of
the students were not urban-dwellers but came from a poor rural
and remote region of North Sumatra. A senior retired government
figure, not aligned to any particular party, gave a one hour
lecture outlining the history of the 1957 and 1999 general
elections and the recent reforms to the Indonesian electoral
system.

This was followed by an explanation of the political
philosophies and policies of the major parties represented in
that area of North Sumatra, namely the PDI-P (Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle), Golkar Party, PKB (the Nahdlatul
Ulama-based National Awakening Party) and PDS (the Christian-
based Prosperous Peace Party).

Data was collected on student/voter intentions before the
ceramah. This was followed by an open forum question and debate
opportunity. Post-ceramah data was collected to determine if
there had been any change in student/voter sentiment. The same
exercise was repeated to include intentions in respect to the
most popular presidential candidates.

On April 5, 2004 most of the large political parties depended
on voter confusion to maintain the status quo. However post-
ceramah results of the North Sumatra exercise indicate that a
well-informed electorate is capable of changing their voting
intentions based on clearly explained party platforms, and
further, that policy substance is actually very attractive to
ordinary voters.

In the first instance the ceramah produced a dramatic decline
in voter apathy. In terms of a clear indication for a party of
choice, the numbers fell from 66 students who were undecided (out
of 300) to 40. In terms of a choice of President this fell from
65 to 23.

This result was reflected in an increased vote for Golkar,
namely 22 to 54, and PKB, namely 2 to 9. Support for the PDI-P
fell markedly from 51 to 42. This statistic appears to have been
reflected in the April 5 poll.

In the section restricted to presidential candidates, the
clear winners were Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, 45 to 101, followed
by Akbar Tandjung, 4 to 18. Amien Rais scored a slight increase,
4 to 7. Megawati was the big looser with a drop in support from
33 to 19.

The Muslim-based PKS (Prosperous Justice Party), one of the
most organized of the grass-roots parties on April 5, was not
well-represented in this particular area of North Sumatra and was
therefore statistically insignificant.

As Bayuni, wrote of the poll this week, "most voters remained
in the dark over their options and were largely unaware of the
qualities of the political parties, their platforms and most of
their candidates". As predicted, the emerging results from April
5, 2004 indicate that voters supported the familiar. Bayuni,
quoting Shakespeare, suggests that "familiarity breeds contempt".
However, also quoting Shakespeare's Hamlet, (appropriately
addressing his old university friends Rosencrantz and
Guildenstern in Act 2: Scene 2), I would optimistically suggest:
"What a piece of work is a man. How noble in reason. How infinite
in faculty. In form and moving how express and admirable".

The North Sumatra experience indicates that while 2004 has
been dominated by form, 2009 may yet prove to be an election of
substance. Quoting the American folk singer Bob Dylan, the take-
home message of the North Sumatra student/voter experiment for
political leaders in Indonesia might be: "You better start
swimming or you'll sink like a stone, for the times they are a-
changing".