Change in the global ecology and the future of development
Change in the global ecology and the future of development
Kishan Khoday, Jakarta
May 22 marks the International Day for Biodiversity
Protection. While most of us think of biodiversity as species
facing pressures of extinction, biological diversity is also
defined at its higher levels as the diversity of ecosystems found
in nature.
If the Earth is seen as a body, then the various ecosystems
that make it up -- forest and woodland systems, drylands,
freshwater and marine systems -- are its organs; each performing
different functions and services that sustain the whole -- food
and water supply and climate regulation to name but a few.
While many global studies have begun the work of understanding
such issues as species extinction, climate change, and pollution,
there is still a major gap in understanding how these issues play
out at the more holistic level of ecosystems.
How are such changes impacting the overall ecosystems in which
they exist, and how will the changing nature of ecosystems at the
global level affect human well-being and development prospects in
the 21st century?
Should we not be concerned with preserving -- and when
possible expanding -- the substantive freedoms of people today
without compromising the ability of future generations to have
similar or more freedoms?
Access to education, health and other public services are
critical for social security and human well-being, and so too is
maintaining what may be called an "ecological security system".
Ecosystems play a vital role in providing food, water and
climate regulation services. And their maintenance will be
critical for achieving poverty reduction over the next decade, as
well as in sustaining such achievements in the decades
thereafter. Mark Malloch Brown, the Administrator of UNDP, put it
best when he recently stated that the issue is no longer
"biodiversity or development" but rather "biodiversity for
development."
Human demand for ecosystem services is growing around the
world. Food production must increase to meet the needs of an
additional three billion people over the next 30 years. One third
of the world population is currently facing water scarcity and
this proportion will double by 2030.
Another one third of the world's population depends on wood
as a source of fuel, a demand that is expected to double by 2050.
Yet as we enter the new century, the capacity of many ecosystems
to provide such service is in decline.
In order to respond to this challenge, UN Secretary-General
Kofi Annan launched a "Millennium Ecosystem Assessment" (MA) in
2001, a US$23 million global initiative involving representatives
of international conventions, UN agencies, scientific
organizations and leaders from civil society, indigenous
organizations and the private sector.
An inter-disciplinary team of over 500 scientists and
development practitioners from 80 countries leads the MA work
program. It is designed to meet the needs of decision makers and
the public for scientific information concerning the consequences
of ecosystem change for human well-being and options for
responding to those changes.
This team is assessing ecological change and human well-being
dynamics under four distinct development scenarios from 2000-
2050. The full global report will be published and launched by
the UN Secretary-General in early 2005.
The results are meant to support actions that enhance the
ability of ecosystems to bring long-term benefit to the poor,
many of whom already live in fragile and threatened ecosystems.
Many of the regions considered by the international community
as priority targets for poverty reduction are located in
predominantly dryland ecosystems (Sub-Saharan Africa, Southwest
Asia, Central Asia, etc.). The drylands account for 40 percent of
the planet's land surface and host two billion people, including
more than 50 percent of the world's population that is currently
living on less than $1 per day.
Most of those in poverty are engaged in agriculture or related
activities so that prospects for enhancing poverty reduction,
food security, water supply, sanitation, etc., are limited by
poor soils and scarcity of freshwater resulting from low
precipitation and high evaporation in these regions.
Given the critical ecological issues in dryland regions, it is
no surprise that the one-third of humanity living in dryland
ecosystems also lags far behind in human development indicators.
Other regions pose other examples of the critical link between
ecosystems and well-being. It has been estimated that about 50
percent of the planet's terrestrial species diversity is located
on just 2 percent of its land surface area, with Southeast Asia
being a priority region given current and future rates of
conversion to agriculture and forestry.
Marine species are also threatened with illegal fishing that
has unprecedented consequences on the sustainability of the
region's fish stocks and the livelihoods and food security for
millions of fish dependent communities.
In Indonesia, some have estimated that the majority of species
diversity now resides in Eastern Indonesia, with Papua hosting
the world's largest mangrove forest and a major proportion of the
world's coral species while also bordering the Arafura Sea to its
south -- with the regions highest levels of marine biodiversity.
Development activities to achieve the MDG's and poverty
reduction in all regions will require a strong emphasis on
ecosystem linkages, in terms of new opportunities for sustainable
use of resources brought by new approaches to local governance
and technology transfer, as well as new challenges brought about
by global climate change and other ecological factors.
In order to make the right development policy choices to
enhance the future well-being of humanity, it is critical that we
understand the essence of ecological change. To do this, we must
not only develop ways to measure the human well-being and
ecosystem change dynamic at various scales but we have to find
meaningful ways to connect these two measures.
The writer currently serves as a Lead Author of the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment and may be reached at
kishan.khoday@undp.org. The views expressed herein do not
necessarily reflect those of UNDP or any of the members of its
Executive Board and of its program countries.