Chances of Indo-Pak talks remote
Chances of Indo-Pak talks remote
By Elizabeth Roche
NEW DELHI (AFP): The recent flurry of statements from India
and Pakistan has taken the nascent peace process in Kashmir to a
delicate stage, but analysts say direct talks are a remote
possibility.
The peace process was initiated when New Delhi suspended
counter-insurgency operations against Kashmiri militant groups on
Nov. 27 for the Islamic holy month of Ramadhan.
On Dec. 2, Pakistan said its troops would exercise "maximum
restraint" along the Line of Control (LoC) which divides Indian-
and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.
Pakistan also said it was willing to enter into "meaningful
dialogue" with India and proposed that the All Parties Hurriyat
Conference, the main Kashmiri separatist alliance, hold talks
with Islamabad and New Delhi separately to pave the way for
three-way talks.
India on its part welcomed the offer of "maximum restraint"
but rejected the demand for tripartite talks, although Prime
Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee indicated that the month-long
cease-fire in Kashmir could be extended.
Three prominent leaders of the Hurriyat are currently in New
Delhi, reportedly for talks with the Indian leadership.
Earlier this week, Hurriyat chairman Abdul Gani Bhat said he
was ready for talks with both India and Pakistan and added that
the ceasefire had generated a "propitious" atmosphere for talks
to solve the Kashmir issue.
Analysts, however, say short term prospects for any direct
Indo-Pakistan dialogue are bleak.
"This is posturing, especially by Pakistan under international
pressure," said Kalim Bahadur, a professor of South Asian Studies
from New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.
"The positions taken by the two sides, are so rigid and
inflexible that it is difficult to see them talking," he added.
Brahma Chellaney, an analyst with the Center for Policy
Research, was equally pessimistic.
"I do not see any forward movement and certainly not towards
talks of any kind, both sides are doing this due to international
pressure," Chellaney said.
"Peace does not work when you are under pressure
militarily ... right now I think it is the militants who are in
control, striking targets at will."
A western diplomat in New Delhi said any negotiations would be
carried out in secret.
"These official declarations are for public and foreign
consumption. The real nitty-gritty will be sorted out behind
closed doors," the diplomat said.
Experts are unsure if the Hurriyat can play any meaningful
role in resolving the Kashmir dispute as they are perceived to be
pro-Pakistani.
"The Hurriyat does not represent the Kashmiri people -- just
one section of opinion," says Chellany.
But Bharat Karnad, another analyst with the Center of Policy
Research disagreed.
"The Hurriyat says that they are ready to talk to both sides
so they could set the dialogue process in motion," Karnad said,
adding that while Pakistan could claim that the talks were
tripartite, New Delhi could say it was talking to the Hurriyat
and Islamabad separately.
New Delhi is unlikely to take a decision on talks until after
it gauges the success of the Ramadhan ceasefire.
India and Pakistan have fought two wars and a border conflict
over Kashmir since 1947.
India accuses Pakistan of arming and training Muslim militants
in Kashmir. Islamabad denies the charge but extends moral and
diplomatic support to the insurgency which has claimed 34,000
lives since 1989.