Chance to repair U.S.-Sino ties

Lee Siew Hua, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Washington

Moderate policy-makers who want to engage China and other major powers in a sustained manner have gained supremacy within the divided Bush administration since the terrorist strikes.

Asian specialists believe the internationalists, who coalesce around Secretary of State Colin Powell, have gained strength over the unilateral Republican Party camp which seeks an aloof policy towards China.

This is occurring only because the crisis compels a multilateral climate as the U.S. builds a coalition of more than 100 nations against terrorism, according to a panel of Asian specialists at a George Washington University briefing.

David Shambaugh, director of the China-policy program at its Elliott School of International Affairs, said: "The current crisis is pushing the U.S. in a much more multilateral direction. But it remains to be seen whether this is a la carte multilateralism -- or a reorientation of policy."

So, it remains unclear if the new multilateral impulse over terrorism will overflow to other vital tracts of foreign policy.

The current shift, even if it does not endure, must be of some comfort to China.

It has observed the cleavage between the administration's internationalists and hawks and had hoped for a better balance.

China had hoped that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and President George W. Bush's now-scrapped visit to Beijing would allow him to familiarize himself with China and move the U.S. policy pendulum towards the middle.

The crisis is an opportunity for both sides to work together, after a rocky start for the U.S.-China relationship under the Bush administration.

In a war that will depend overwhelmingly on reliable intelligence, China has a contribution to make.

It has connections with the Northern Alliance and the Taliban, and has been involved in Central Asia for years. But it is not clear how much it will share.

And the U.S. has much to learn from Chinese counter-terrorism experts.

Also, China can screen its short border with Afghanistan.

There will be a quid pro quo hanging in the air, but the U.S. will move very cautiously.

While it knows China has problems with Muslims in Xinjiang, it will not want to equate defeating terrorists with suppressing peaceful demands for improved political and human rights.

Meanwhile, the terrorism crisis has stirred other questions in China. Harry Harding, dean of the Elliott School, said China would want to know what it meant for the U.S. missile-defense system, which Beijing opposes.

It will also want to know how it will affect America's long- term strategy towards Central Asia, which some Chinese thinkers believe is the final link in the strategic encirclement of China.

And will the U.S. downplay human rights? Will it take a different approach to Taiwan?

The answer to the Taiwan question, at least, is clear. Powell has ruled out change. There will be no deal on Taiwan.

The Asian specialists also noted that the Bush administration had not made a clear statement on its Asia policy.

They noted that Bush had truncated his APEC trip, postponing his visits to Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul.

Harding said Asians would want to know how much of a drain on U.S. attention and energy the crisis would be. The professor said it was useful to frame Asian questions about U.S. foreign policy.

For instance:

India is wondering if the U.S. will take a more even-handed policy towards itself and Pakistan, which has supported the U.S. campaign.

South Korea wants to know if the U.S. will disengage from dialog with Pyongyang, though the U.S. has indicated that this will not happen.

Islamic states, such as Indonesia, want to know if there will be an across-the-board U.S. anti-Islamic strategy. But the U.S. has emphasized repeatedly the new war is not a conflict with Islam.

Meanwhile, the U.S. hopes regional institutions such as APEC and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) will have fresh impetus.

APEC can, potentially, begin to focus on macro-economic issues as well as security issues. The ARF can promote cooperation on terrorism.

Overall, the U.S. is very gratified that Asia's response to the global campaign against terrorism has been positive.

The experts noted that Japan has responded rapidly, unlike its too-little-too-late response during the Gulf War.

Certainly, Pakistan has been supportive, though it is negotiating on the lifting of a series of sanctions.

Even North Korea has denounced the terrorist acts.

Harding said of the vital Chinese response: "The Chinese government has responded very quickly, seeing this as a way of stabilizing and rebuilding China-U.S. relations."

Ultimately, China has fallen several notches down the U.S. chart of adversaries, while the overall U.S.-Asia relationship is enjoying an upswing.