Ceasefire efforts test Arafat's control

By Timothy Heritage

JERUSALEM (Reuters): Yasser Arafat's ability to rein in Palestinian militants and halt suicide bombings is vital to enforcing a cease-fire after eight months of violence, Israeli and Palestinian political analysts said on Tuesday.

But Israel's willingness to offer the Palestinian president something at the negotiating table and U.S. pressure on both sides are also crucial if a truce is to hold, they said.

After months of debate over whether Arafat can control militant groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, analysts on both sides said he had shown in the few days since he called for a cease-fire that he has considerable leverage over them.

But they also cautioned that the militants were sending mixed signals and cease-fire efforts remained in the balance, vulnerable to the intentions of a lone suicide bomber or a single act of violence committed by either side.

"As of now, he clearly has more control than Palestinians and Israelis claimed. He has been able to freeze the level of terrorism and violence," said Gerald Steinberg, head of a conflict management program at Israel's Bar-Ilan University.

"But we've got only three or four days of experience and need at least a week to be able to draw a firm conclusion."

Palestinian political analyst Ghassan al-Khatib told Reuters there were "positive signs so far but no guarantees".

"He's giving the impression that he's relatively in control but it's too early to judge what the behavior of Hamas is going to be," he said.

A Hamas official raised the possibility on Monday of a cease-fire in its attacks in Israel but said its fight against Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza would go on.

But a senior Hamas official dented hopes raised by that comment by saying on Tuesday that the movement would continue to attack Israelis "everywhere".

Palestinian sources who declined to be identified said it was possible that Hamas was divided over how to respond.

But they also said Hamas would never say openly that it had agreed to lay low temporarily in response to Arafat's cease-fire request because that would disappoint its followers.

Arafat called for the cease-fire on Saturday under fierce international pressure, led by the United States, after a Palestinian suicide bomber killed 20 people outside a night club in Tel Aviv on Friday. Most were teenagers.

Since then, he has met Palestinian factions to discuss the cease-fire, and the factions have discussed it among themselves.

Israel is looking for deeds, not just words, from Arafat and many officials say he may have ordered the cease-fire just to avert the danger of a military response by Israel.

"The litmus test will be in the field ... on too many occasions Arafat has deceived too many people, so why should anyone believe him now?" Israeli commentator Yoel Marcus wrote in Ha'aretz newspaper.

Palestinians dismiss such questions about Arafat's motives, and hit back by saying Israel's limited unilateral cease-fire, declared by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on May 22, is just a propaganda ploy.

"His (Sharon's) cease-fire call is misleading and inaccurate as this is not a war between two states or armies, but aggression by an occupation army against an occupied people," Palestinian Information Minister Yasser Abed Rabbo said.

Arafat is widely considered unlikely to bow to one key Israeli demand -- to re-arrest militants freed from prison soon after the Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip erupted in late September.

Palestinian officials say privately that such a move is not backed by Arafat's Fatah movement, some of whose members fight alongside Hamas and Islamic Jihad activists, and Arafat has been offered no political reward for making such a risky move.

"He seems to have done the maximum he can do in the circumstances," Khatib said.

"If they want him to be more efficient then they have to empower him in two ways -- they have to give him some political achievements and stop the pressure on the Palestinian Authority so that it can do things."

The Palestinians demand a freeze on construction at Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and an end to the army's use of lethal force. They also want international peacekeepers sent to the region and an end to the occupation.

Steinberg said that if the cease-fire held, Israel was unlikely to offer grand gestures at talks but would opt for a gradual approach eventually leading to discussion of the most difficult issues. U.S. pressure would be vital, he said.

"The key factor is the United States. Without U.S. pressure Arafat was probably willing to continue with his policy of trying to drag Israel into an overreaction," he said.

"If the United States relaxes that pressure, or if Arafat can't restrain the Palestinian forces from continuing terrorism, I think we'll be back to a serious military situation."