Cautious optimism

Next Sunday marks the 50th anniversary of the start of the Korean War, a date that may be noted with as much confusion as solemnity. Thanks to last week's Pyongyang summit, no one is quite certain what to expect next on the divided peninsula. Fears of war have turned into hopes for peace, and the main question is whether these hopes have outpaced reality.

It is impossible to know just yet. Thus the more conservative observers are warning as did a Pentagon official that concerned governments should maintain "a warier, controlled exuberance" as they contemplate the Korean future. The U.S., for example, still calls Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programs a threat, and claims it is a leading source of addictive methamphetamines, sometimes smuggled by official agencies.

Caution is a harder sell in South Korea, where the pudgy Kim Jong-il is suddenly perceived as not monstrous but cute, for some schoolchildren a new kind of cheerful Teletubby. His self- confidence, geniality and apparent thoughtfulness have upset the dreadful image created for him by South Korean propagandists and reinforced by reports from his draconian society. His unexpected attempts at humor gave credence to his official designation as "the priceless master of witty remarks".

The contradictions continued yesterday as the north once again denounced South Korea's treaties with the U.S. and Japan, even as Kim Jong-il sent a friendly letter to President Bill Clinton.

The best reaction probably is to mix hope with caution and await new developments before overhauling northeast Asia's diplomacy. The north has no fewer troops along the shared border this week than it did last week. The future of its missile and nuclear programs has not been decided. Its willingness to open up to visitors and investors remains unclear.

The two sides will talk soon about their next steps. The first ones will be modest; perhaps 100 people will visit relatives across the border in August, and some elderly prisoners may be exchanged.

But Mr. Kim may also visit Seoul about that time, giving the program new impetus.

Because the south so clearly wants some serious reconciliation, and the north just as clearly needs it, the 51st war anniversary could prove to be both a more cheerful and less ambiguous time.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong