Wed, 21 Sep 1994

Carter diplomacy being tested in Haiti

The last-ditch attempt at diplomacy by former United States president Jimmy Carter has spared Haiti a violent U.S. invasion, at least temporarily. Noted political scientist Juwono Sudarsono argues that success of this diplomacy will be measured by President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's ability to garner domestic support for nationwide reconciliation in the coming weeks.

JAKARTA (JP): Amid signs of relief in Washington over the peaceful military invasion of Haiti by United States forces, a lingering question hangs over the future of the country: Will it pass the 30-day test of political transition by Oct. 15?

"Operation Uphold Democracy" underlies the hard realities of post Cold War geopolitics: the United States and the United Nations calculate their missions and operations in terms of sustainable political costs. The United States turned away from Somalia not because it couldn't win militarily, but because the political chaos in that faraway country didn't merit the loss of American lives or dollars.

Why the United States and the UN could not "do a Haiti" in the former Yugoslavia two years ago is self evident: there would have been American and UN casualties at the hands of Serbian troops in Bosnia.

The costs, considering the prevailing climate in American domestic politics, would have been untenable. The easy way out was to cast Bosnia as an essentially European problem.

Haiti is a classic case of a geopolitical pushover on a platter. The real reason for action over Haiti has to do with the perceived economic threats from the stream of political refugees emanating from Cuba and Haiti, which would have wreaked havoc on the economic stability of key southern states, especially Florida.

Intervention in Haiti on behalf of democracy, backed by a resolution from a pliant UN Security Council six weeks ago, eased acceptance by the American public. Americans expect the military operation to be swift and troop casualties kept to a minimum.

A successful military operation would also help the standing of a president not known to be respected by his own military.

But the real test of successful American intervention is whether Raoul Cedras and his colleagues actually will step down by Oct. 15. It is not a question of whether or not amnesty for the Haitian generals will hold in order to provide an adequate interim between an outgoing "military junta" and an incoming" civilian government".

The underlying issues of the 30-day period are Jean-Bertrand Aristide's leadership abilities and whether he will be able to gather enough domestic support to run a government of national reconciliation.

The major question that lingers is whether an implanted "democratic government," although UN supported, can ultimately gain the political loyalty of the majority of Haitians.

If the 30-day test period passes peacefully with the establishment of a civilian government based on elections and supervised by a multinational administration, then Operation Uphold Democracy will be trumpeted in the United States as a victory for "free market democracies".

If things get out of hand during the 30-day period, fierce resistance may build up among middle class Haitians. Not so much against Cedras, but against the humiliation of being an object of American-style nation-building. Rampant factionalism in Haitian politics could lead to political violence and the settling of old scores. Then the case for Operation Uphold Democracy would not hold.

Another round of political chaos would pose dire consequences for further American involvement. Should that happen, even 10,000 angels claiming Jimmy Carter was right would not help President Clinton's fellow Democrats' prospects in the upcoming November mid-term elections.

For the moment, Americans may bask in the Haitian military pushover. But viewed from the perspective of deep-seated factionalism in Haitian politics, the jury is still out as to whether the 30-day transition period can provide sufficient time for solid democracy to take hold in Haiti.

The writer is professor of international relations at the University of Indonesia, Jakarta.