Carter diplomacy being tested in Haiti

Carter diplomacy being tested in Haiti

The last-ditch attempt at diplomacy by former United States
president Jimmy Carter has spared Haiti a violent U.S. invasion,
at least temporarily. Noted political scientist Juwono Sudarsono
argues that success of this diplomacy will be measured by
President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's ability to garner domestic
support for nationwide reconciliation in the coming weeks.

JAKARTA (JP): Amid signs of relief in Washington over the
peaceful military invasion of Haiti by United States forces, a
lingering question hangs over the future of the country: Will it
pass the 30-day test of political transition by Oct. 15?

"Operation Uphold Democracy" underlies the hard realities of
post Cold War geopolitics: the United States and the United
Nations calculate their missions and operations in terms of
sustainable political costs. The United States turned away from
Somalia not because it couldn't win militarily, but because the
political chaos in that faraway country didn't merit the loss of
American lives or dollars.

Why the United States and the UN could not "do a Haiti" in the
former Yugoslavia two years ago is self evident: there would have
been American and UN casualties at the hands of Serbian troops in
Bosnia.

The costs, considering the prevailing climate in American
domestic politics, would have been untenable. The easy way out
was to cast Bosnia as an essentially European problem.

Haiti is a classic case of a geopolitical pushover on a
platter. The real reason for action over Haiti has to do with the
perceived economic threats from the stream of political refugees
emanating from Cuba and Haiti, which would have wreaked havoc on
the economic stability of key southern states, especially
Florida.

Intervention in Haiti on behalf of democracy, backed by a
resolution from a pliant UN Security Council six weeks ago, eased
acceptance by the American public. Americans expect the military
operation to be swift and troop casualties kept to a minimum.

A successful military operation would also help the standing
of a president not known to be respected by his own military.

But the real test of successful American intervention is
whether Raoul Cedras and his colleagues actually will step down
by Oct. 15. It is not a question of whether or not amnesty for
the Haitian generals will hold in order to provide an adequate
interim between an outgoing "military junta" and an incoming"
civilian government".

The underlying issues of the 30-day period are Jean-Bertrand
Aristide's leadership abilities and whether he will be able to
gather enough domestic support to run a government of national
reconciliation.

The major question that lingers is whether an implanted
"democratic government," although UN supported, can ultimately
gain the political loyalty of the majority of Haitians.

If the 30-day test period passes peacefully with the
establishment of a civilian government based on elections and
supervised by a multinational administration, then Operation
Uphold Democracy will be trumpeted in the United States as a
victory for "free market democracies".

If things get out of hand during the 30-day period, fierce
resistance may build up among middle class Haitians. Not so much
against Cedras, but against the humiliation of being an object of
American-style nation-building. Rampant factionalism in Haitian
politics could lead to political violence and the settling of
old scores. Then the case for Operation Uphold Democracy would
not hold.

Another round of political chaos would pose dire consequences
for further American involvement. Should that happen, even 10,000
angels claiming Jimmy Carter was right would not help President
Clinton's fellow Democrats' prospects in the upcoming November
mid-term elections.

For the moment, Americans may bask in the Haitian military
pushover. But viewed from the perspective of deep-seated
factionalism in Haitian politics, the jury is still out as to
whether the 30-day transition period can provide sufficient time
for solid democracy to take hold in Haiti.

The writer is professor of international relations at the
University of Indonesia, Jakarta.