Can Gen. Musharraf become president?

By Parmanand

NEW DELHI: Pakistan chief executive Gen. Pervez Musharraf seems to be working hard to become the Islamic Republic's 12th President. The most important question is: Will he be able to do it constitutionally? The 1973 Constitution -- most provisions of which were suspended by Gen. Musharraf on his assumption of power on Oct. 12, 1999 -- provides for the election of the President for a renewable five-year term at a joint sitting of the members of the Federal Assembly, comprising the National Assembly and the Senate, and the four Provincial Assemblies.

Apparently, there should not be much of a hassle in convening the federal assembly and the provincial assemblies for this purpose inasmuch as they have not been dissolved, and only kept under animated suspension. But that will not be the end of Gen. Musharraf's problems.

The most important problem is that the office of the President per se is not vacant. The 71-year-old incumbent President, Muhammad Rafiq Tarar -- who was sworn in on Jan. 1, 1998 -- will be completing his five-year term only on Dec. 31, 2002. He may not be quite amenable to resign voluntarily.

Assuming that under the changed and changing circumstances, Tarar resigns voluntarily or is forced to resign, it would not automatically ensure that the election for the vacant post will see Musharraf emerging victorious. True, by splitting the largest party in the National Assembly, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), and by creating a friend in the form of the leader of another faction of the PML, Musharraf might be feeling quite comfortable.

Significantly, in the last week of April, the military regime initiated talks with Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) on the formation of an interim national government and Gen. Musharraf's plans to get elected as President. A few army officials were also reported to have called on Benazir Bhutto in London.

Reportedly, the Musharraf government had sent feelers to the PPP after the Supreme Court recently set aside Benazir Bhutto's conviction in a corruption case. However, Benazir seems to be hesitant to return as she fears arrest in connection with other cases.

In the 18th century, the French philosopher Jean-Jacques Rosseau (1712-1778) observed: "The strongest is never strong enough unless he succeeds in turning might into right and obedience into duty." Needless to stress, the men in uniform throughout the world in varying manners and degrees have been trying to legitimize their rule to get some form of public endorsement. Two of Gen. Pervez Musharraf's predecessors, Field Marshal Ayub Khan (1907-1974) and Gen. Zia-ul Haq (1924-1988), got themselves elected president through referendums in the first instance. Unlike Musharraf, both Ayub and Zia took over the reins of power as Chief Martial Law Administrator.

President Ayub Khan got himself endorsed as the President of Pakistan through a referendum on Feb. 14, 1960. It was claimed that 60 percent of the people turned out to vote and 96 percent of them voted to endorse Ayub as the country's President.

On his part, Gen. Zia-ul Haq, through a referendum on Dec. 21, 1984, got his rule extended for another five years and his policy of Islamization approved. It was officially claimed that 62 percent of the voters turned out and 98 percent of them approved Zia's policies and position.

Some observers feel that Gen. Musharraf might also think of some device to legitimize his rule on the lines of Ayub and Zia. Of course, it is also counter-argued that Gen. Pervez Musharraf does not enjoy the stature of Ayub or Zia, that Pakistan has entered the new millennium where words like "transparency" and "accountability" are becoming more prominent and that his ethnic background may work against him.

The political culture of Pakistan, it is believed by many, may not accept a Mohajir (an ethnic group which migrated to the country after its formation) as the country's President in any open and transparent referendum.

If the eighth constitutional amendment effected by Gen. Zia had made it tremendously strong, the 13th constitutional amendment effected by Nawaz Sharif made it immensely weak. The President was made almost a figurehead. As such, there are reports that Gen. Musharraf also aims at making the Presidency powerful before or after assuming this office. But this in itself will not be an easy task. No political party seems to be in a mood to support Musharraf to achieve this objective.

It is not that Gen. Musharraf has only weaknesses on his side. He has strengthened himself in a variety of ways. For one thing, the feudal society of Pakistan, by and large, does not ensure the establishment of the same kind of relationship between the politicians and the people as in other parts of the Third World. Politicians in Pakistan, ever since the country's inception, could not create the same kind of political culture as in India or elsewhere.

Quite significantly, Gen. Musharraf has, of late, created a strong constituency for himself in the army -- the mainstay of a man in uniform. By appointing Lt. Gen. Musaffar Hussain Usmani as the Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, Musharraf has taken a decisive step to play a major role in the country's affairs.

A few weeks ago, Gen. Musharraf averred that he had no intention to retire as the Chief of Army Staff when his term expires in October 2001. Indeed, he wishes to retain his post of Chief even after becoming the country's President -- if he succeeds.

Obviously, it is the increasing strength of Gen. Musharraf in domestic politics that made the Pakistan army tell the World Bank that it would continue its role in the country's future political framework by establishing a National Security Council that would ensure continuity in the policies of the World Bank.

It is not for nothing that a recently published United States report has showed a great deal of softness towards Pakistan and has also hinted that the U.S. administration wanted to help Pakistan further in the objective of lifting its economy. Perhaps the United States sees Pakistan as a ray of hope amidst growing obscurantism and fundamentalism in the Muslim world in general.

On May 3 Pakistan stopped four ministers of Afghanistan Taliban regime from visiting the country and tightened security at its frontier dividing the two nations. The Taliban ministers were coming to Pakistan to attend a conference organized by a radical Islamic party in northwestern Pakistan.

The English Pakistani daily Dawn quoted Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider as saying so. The Taliban ministers were stopped at Torkham, the main crossing between the two countries and turned back, Moinuddin Haider was quoted as saying.

Indeed, this was the first time that a government considered close to the militia and one of the three countries that recognizes the regime had refused entry to Taliban ministers. Haider averred that it was done in line with the United Nations sanctions that ban supplying weapons to the Taliban and restrict foreign travels by their officials.

Probably in yet another attempt to show that the Musharraf government is distancing itself from religious groups in Pakistan, 26 months after Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's historic visit to Lahore, a court in the city has issued non- bailable warrant against five Jammat-i-Islami leaders for attacking cars of some accompanying dignitaries.

Musharraf has his problems and strengths but he seems to be moving more in the direction of legitimizing his rule. After getting rid of Nawaz Sharif, he is trying to patch up with Benazir Bhutto. And Benazir appears to be willing to oblige.

In a recent interview Benazir Bhutto said: "I, however, do not have personal problems with Musharraf ... I do have personal problems with Sharif". If she were given a choice between Musharraf and Sharif, she said, "I will choose Musharraf any day."

The author is Honorary Director of the South Asian Studies Foundation, New Delhi.

-- The Statesman/Asia News Network