Cambodian crisis: A litmus test for ASEAN

By David Harries

JAKARTA (JP): When the going gets tough, the tough get going.

Now is not the time for ASEAN to change its mind about bringing Cambodia into the Association. The recent sad and tragic events all point to a country whose future could be a much bigger problem for the region if left to its own devices outside the Association.

ASEAN made a convincing argument for including Myanmar among the new inductees citing constructive engagement. If that concept indeed has practical merit, Cambodia should be brought into ASEAN on July 23, without undue fanfare and recognized for what it is, a failing state which members of the Association hope to help save.

The media is ringing with the word; coup. Whatever was Hun Sen's seizing of the commanding political position over the weekend of July 5 and 6, it was more fate than coup. The country has been saddled with an unrepresentative and inappropriate two- headed government since 1993. It was almost inevitable that something would trigger a "correction." Since the March 30 grenade attack on the political gathering, there have been many triggers. The first co-prime minister's surprisingly timed departure for Paris, for reasons which remain unclear, may simply have been the most effective.

ASEAN decided, against pressure from within and without and in a less than absolutely "Asian way," that the three remaining Southeast Asian states would be brought into the Association together, this month. The decision should be kept the reasons for doing so going well beyond the matter of saving face. In fact, with all that is happening, there is no best option now. But there are options which are definitely worse than others. Sudden abandonment of Cambodia is probably one of the worst. The cleanest way cut of a dirty situation is for Cambodia, probably in the person of the King or Hun Sen, to state that the country does not want to burden ASEAN with it troubles right now and will accept a delay in its membership. This seems very unlikely.

If, on July 23, Cambodia does not join Laos and Myanmar in celebrating entry to ASEAN, many of the possible outcomes are truly disturbing, the more so since it appeared -- at least until March 30 -- that the country was putting some distance between itself and terrible times in the past.

First, leaving Cambodia off the list may doom it to more rounds of civil terror and political chaos. Another UN-like invasion of people and processes is almost unthinkable. Second, the act will be perceived by some in the international community as proof that ASEAN made a bad decision to include Cambodia and, perhaps more telling, a sign that the Association is unwilling or unable to manage difficult challenges to stability, even forewarned ones, because no arrangement or regime exists for doing so.

Third, if Cambodia becomes a political outsider while geographically embedded in the region, it could become a thorn in the side of the Association as "the other side of the tracks." It could become an independent center for drugs, money-laundering, illegal migration, smuggling, arms dealing and piracy. fourth, if and when it was again decided that Cambodia could join ASEAN, it would probably be so far behind the other members of the Association that, even with special concessions and attention. It would always be the last and the least of the group. Fifth, as an unstable and poor country bordering the South China Sea, Cambodia outside the Association could act as a "wild card" in the management of what is to become one of the most important and politically complex oil delivery lanes in the world. This Sea is already the scene of more than enough uncertainty and dispute.

ASEAN, and the world, knew that peace and stability in Southeast Asia was fragile. There was never any doubt that they would be tested. Cambodia is the main test today. Being optimistic about events there requires one to accept that conflict which was inevitable may be happening at the best possible time because necessity is the mother of invention. If ASEAN expansion is to be successful, if the region's economic growth is to continue and its benefits be more fairly shared, and if Cambodia's trial are not to be free to foster troubles beyond its boundaries, the Cambodian crises must be effectively handled. Given ASEAN's current concentration on its membership and the reasons for the program on July 23 -- the 30th Anniversary, the time seems particularly appropriate for Association to invent some responses to a new member's troubles.

The writer is an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.