Cambodian crisis: A litmus test for ASEAN

Cambodian crisis: A litmus test for ASEAN

By David Harries

JAKARTA (JP): When the going gets tough, the tough get going.

Now is not the time for ASEAN to change its mind about
bringing Cambodia into the Association. The recent sad and tragic
events all point to a country whose future could be a much bigger
problem for the region if left to its own devices outside the
Association.

ASEAN made a convincing argument for including Myanmar among
the new inductees citing constructive engagement. If that concept
indeed has practical merit, Cambodia should be brought into ASEAN
on July 23, without undue fanfare and recognized for what it is,
a failing state which members of the Association hope to help
save.

The media is ringing with the word; coup. Whatever was Hun
Sen's seizing of the commanding political position over the
weekend of July 5 and 6, it was more fate than coup. The country
has been saddled with an unrepresentative and inappropriate two-
headed government since 1993. It was almost inevitable that
something would trigger a "correction." Since the March 30
grenade attack on the political gathering, there have been many
triggers. The first co-prime minister's surprisingly timed
departure for Paris, for reasons which remain unclear, may simply
have been the most effective.

ASEAN decided, against pressure from within and without and in
a less than absolutely "Asian way," that the three remaining
Southeast Asian states would be brought into the Association
together, this month. The decision should be kept the reasons for
doing so going well beyond the matter of saving face. In fact,
with all that is happening, there is no best option now. But
there are options which are definitely worse than others. Sudden
abandonment of Cambodia is probably one of the worst. The
cleanest way cut of a dirty situation is for Cambodia, probably
in the person of the King or Hun Sen, to state that the country
does not want to burden ASEAN with it troubles right now and will
accept a delay in its membership. This seems very unlikely.

If, on July 23, Cambodia does not join Laos and Myanmar in
celebrating entry to ASEAN, many of the possible outcomes are
truly disturbing, the more so since it appeared -- at least until
March 30 -- that the country was putting some distance between
itself and terrible times in the past.

First, leaving Cambodia off the list may doom it to more
rounds of civil terror and political chaos. Another UN-like
invasion of people and processes is almost unthinkable. Second,
the act will be perceived by some in the international community
as proof that ASEAN made a bad decision to include Cambodia and,
perhaps more telling, a sign that the Association is unwilling or
unable to manage difficult challenges to stability, even
forewarned ones, because no arrangement or regime exists for
doing so.

Third, if Cambodia becomes a political outsider while
geographically embedded in the region, it could become a thorn in
the side of the Association as "the other side of the tracks." It
could become an independent center for drugs, money-laundering,
illegal migration, smuggling, arms dealing and piracy. fourth, if
and when it was again decided that Cambodia could join ASEAN, it
would probably be so far behind the other members of the
Association that, even with special concessions and attention. It
would always be the last and the least of the group. Fifth, as an
unstable and poor country bordering the South China Sea, Cambodia
outside the Association could act as a "wild card" in the
management of what is to become one of the most important and
politically complex oil delivery lanes in the world. This Sea is
already the scene of more than enough uncertainty and dispute.

ASEAN, and the world, knew that peace and stability in
Southeast Asia was fragile. There was never any doubt that they
would be tested. Cambodia is the main test today. Being
optimistic about events there requires one to accept that
conflict which was inevitable may be happening at the best
possible time because necessity is the mother of invention. If
ASEAN expansion is to be successful, if the region's economic
growth is to continue and its benefits be more fairly shared, and
if Cambodia's trial are not to be free to foster troubles beyond
its boundaries, the Cambodian crises must be effectively handled.
Given ASEAN's current concentration on its membership and the
reasons for the program on July 23 -- the 30th Anniversary, the
time seems particularly appropriate for Association to invent
some responses to a new member's troubles.

The writer is an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies, Jakarta.