Cak Nur strongest challenger to Mega in 2004

Cak Nur strongest challenger to Mega in 2004

A'an Suryana, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Noted scholar Nurcholish Madjid will pose the strongest challenge
to President Megawati Soekarnoputri in the 2004 election, a
survey says.

More than 28 percent of 10,000 people surveyed from July 4
through July 14 picked Nurcholish, popularly known as Cak Nur, as
the only candidate that could challenge Megawati when the country
holds its first ever direct presidential election next year.

Two other politicians trailed behind Cak Nur -- Yogyakarta
Governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X and People's Consultative
Assembly (MPR) Speaker Amien Rais, who is also chairman of the
National Mandate Party (PAN).

"Nurcholish and Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono have captured the
public's trust and are Megawati's two strongest challengers,"
said the survey, which was made public on Wednesday.

The survey was held in 19 municipalities and 14 regencies in
15 provinces across the country. The total number of respondents
was 10,000, and they were questioned using the purposive random
sampling method.

Similar numbers of male and female respondents were
questioned, with women representing 48.51 percent of the
respondents.

The youngest respondent was 17 years old, while the oldest was
50. The occupations of the respondents varied, and they included
private sector employees, students, entrepreneurs, housewives,
blue collar workers, civil servants, members of the Indonesian
Military and police, lecturers, farmers, fishermen and others.

The educational levels of the respondents also varied, and
they ranged from elementary school up to university level
graduates.

Cak Nur, who is considering standing in Golkar's ongoing
convention to select its presidential candidate, was chosen by
2,828 of the 10,000 respondents, while Sri Sultan received 2,436
votes.

These two figures were selected on account of their perceived
virtues. Nurcholish, who is also the rector of the Jakarta-based
Paramadina University, has long been known for his clarity of
vision and morality, while Sri Sultan has inherited the charisma
of his legendary father Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX, an
exemplary ruler of Yogyakarta and an independence fighter.

"The preferences given to these two gives a signal that the
public are longing to see the emergence of new faces on the
national political stage," said the survey.

The survey also showed that Amien Rais, who received the
preferences of 1,971, or 19.71 percent, of the respondents, came
in third place.

However, Amien, a former chairman of the country's second
largest Muslim organization, Muhammadiyah, may become a dark
horse challenger for both Cak Nur and Sri Sultan as he is the
most active politician trying to solicit support from public,
said the survey.

Picking the right vice presidential candidate, however, could
help Megawati sideline her rivals in the presidential election,
scheduled to be held between June and August, 2003.

In order to hang on to office, Megawati is advised to choose
Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono as her vice presidential running mate in 2004.

Susilo, a retired four-star Army general, received 22.56
percent of the preferences as Megawati's running mate. Another
figure was Jusuf Kalla, who got 13.45 percent of the vote. Kalla
could help Megawati obtain votes from the islands outside of
Java.

The survey was conducted by Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated, which
describes itself as a non-profit organization devoted to
promoting democracy.

Meanwhile, political analyst J. Kristiadi said after the
announcement of the survey results that the strongest challenge
to Megawati actually came from within her own party. Megawati was
now facing internal problems in her party, as shown by widening
cracks in several provinces, said Kristiadi, from the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Several gubernatorial candidates from Megawati's Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) have ignored
Megawati's orders to withdraw from the gubernatorial elections in
their respective provinces, signaling difficulties within the
party that could affect Megawati's popularity in the next
election.