Cak Nur strongest challenger to Mega in 2004

A'an Suryana, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Noted scholar Nurcholish Madjid will pose the strongest challenge to President Megawati Soekarnoputri in the 2004 election, a survey says.

More than 28 percent of 10,000 people surveyed from July 4 through July 14 picked Nurcholish, popularly known as Cak Nur, as the only candidate that could challenge Megawati when the country holds its first ever direct presidential election next year.

Two other politicians trailed behind Cak Nur -- Yogyakarta Governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X and People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Speaker Amien Rais, who is also chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN).

"Nurcholish and Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono have captured the public's trust and are Megawati's two strongest challengers," said the survey, which was made public on Wednesday.

The survey was held in 19 municipalities and 14 regencies in 15 provinces across the country. The total number of respondents was 10,000, and they were questioned using the purposive random sampling method.

Similar numbers of male and female respondents were questioned, with women representing 48.51 percent of the respondents.

The youngest respondent was 17 years old, while the oldest was 50. The occupations of the respondents varied, and they included private sector employees, students, entrepreneurs, housewives, blue collar workers, civil servants, members of the Indonesian Military and police, lecturers, farmers, fishermen and others.

The educational levels of the respondents also varied, and they ranged from elementary school up to university level graduates.

Cak Nur, who is considering standing in Golkar's ongoing convention to select its presidential candidate, was chosen by 2,828 of the 10,000 respondents, while Sri Sultan received 2,436 votes.

These two figures were selected on account of their perceived virtues. Nurcholish, who is also the rector of the Jakarta-based Paramadina University, has long been known for his clarity of vision and morality, while Sri Sultan has inherited the charisma of his legendary father Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX, an exemplary ruler of Yogyakarta and an independence fighter.

"The preferences given to these two gives a signal that the public are longing to see the emergence of new faces on the national political stage," said the survey.

The survey also showed that Amien Rais, who received the preferences of 1,971, or 19.71 percent, of the respondents, came in third place.

However, Amien, a former chairman of the country's second largest Muslim organization, Muhammadiyah, may become a dark horse challenger for both Cak Nur and Sri Sultan as he is the most active politician trying to solicit support from public, said the survey.

Picking the right vice presidential candidate, however, could help Megawati sideline her rivals in the presidential election, scheduled to be held between June and August, 2003.

In order to hang on to office, Megawati is advised to choose Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as her vice presidential running mate in 2004.

Susilo, a retired four-star Army general, received 22.56 percent of the preferences as Megawati's running mate. Another figure was Jusuf Kalla, who got 13.45 percent of the vote. Kalla could help Megawati obtain votes from the islands outside of Java.

The survey was conducted by Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated, which describes itself as a non-profit organization devoted to promoting democracy.

Meanwhile, political analyst J. Kristiadi said after the announcement of the survey results that the strongest challenge to Megawati actually came from within her own party. Megawati was now facing internal problems in her party, as shown by widening cracks in several provinces, said Kristiadi, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Several gubernatorial candidates from Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) have ignored Megawati's orders to withdraw from the gubernatorial elections in their respective provinces, signaling difficulties within the party that could affect Megawati's popularity in the next election.