Cabinet reshuffle may cause even worse unrests

President Soeharto said Saturday he would accept it if the people no longer had trust in him and at the same time announced a plan to reshuffle the cabinet. Political science lecturer Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia discusses the meaning of such moves and their impact.

Question: Do you think President Soeharto really meant it when he told University of Indonesia leaders Saturday that he would be ready to step aside by constitutional means if that was what the people wanted?

Arbi: That's difficult to believe. Judging from his over 30 years in power, we can conclude that his choice of ambiguous statements and repeated denials of what he said indicates that he is not willing to step down. If he had really meant to step aside, his words would not have been complicated and he would have, therefore, been more straightforward.

His announcement on the same day that he would reshuffle his cabinet -- in his efforts to accommodate public demands and to restore security and order -- indicates that he was trying to make himself more effective and that he wanted to sustain his power.

In the planned reshuffle, he will surely drop ministers or officials who have failed to strengthen his government and replace them with those more loyal to him.

Q: How do you expect university students, who have been demonstrating for months for political reform, to respond Soeharto's new moves?

A: They will certainly continue pressuring him to step down through demonstrations, probably on a bigger magnitude than before. The students are likely to stay on their campuses in the coming few days of their demonstrations, but they will probably go out on the streets if they think their demands are being ignored. Whether the demonstrations escalate will depend on the way the security officials treat them. If security authorities provoke them, something terrifying may happen.

Q: Aren't the students afraid of a recurrence of the rioting that happened last week after troops shot some of them dead?

A: Students were not responsible for last week's rioting, it was those who initially wanted to support the students' demands for reform and later took the opportunity to commit arson and loot.

To prevent such rioting from happening again, leaders of mass organizations, Moslem scholars and priests should go onto the streets and lead their followers and prevent them from causing destruction.

Q: What do you see in the near future?

A: Confrontation is foreseeable between demonstrating students and their pro-reform allies on the one side and the government on the other, as each of the two sides take measures to strengthen their own positions, causing a political deadlock.

The students and other pro-reform parties are getting stronger with the establishment of the Council for the People's Mandate, the Indonesian Working Forum and the Indonesian National Committee for Reform. Recent calls by leaders of the Group of Eight (G-8) industrial countries for political reform in Indonesia have also encouraged the pro-reform movement. At the same time, Soeharto is trying to empower his cabinet.

I am afraid that such developments will lead to open, physical conflict in the coming two or three months, while the economy also worsens. While unemployment is increasing, prices will continue rising.

Even though they have no weapons, the people, with belief in their demands and their great number, will bravely face the government, which has troops with complete military equipment. If millions of people, consisting of students, lecturers, mass organization members, non-governmental organization activists and professionals hit the streets, ABRI would not dare kill them.

Q: Do you see any possibility of the Armed Forces (ABRI) siding with the people instead of the government?

A: I don't see such a possibility. Look, even its Saptamarga (seven point) oath does not mention anything about people. It is designed to defend the state. It is now defending the state, while oppressing the people.

Q: What do you think about the fate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-sponsored economic reform program?

A: That will depend on the new government. It seems the IMF and other donors are holding onto their aid to Indonesia because they want to make sure the money will be used by a government which is fully committed to implementing the reform program and respects human rights and democracy.

Q: Is it possible for a third party, a strong military official, for example, to take over power, instead of the pro-reform society?

A: That is possible. But whoever leads the country, the people's power will work and the national leaders will have to meet the people's demands.

Q: What is the best way for the country to manage the transition of its leadership?

A: Because we cannot expect too much from the current MPR and DPR, whose members were recruited by the President to sustain his power, the government should hold a national dialog with social leaders to reach a consensus on the democratization of the country through political reform and the establishment of a transitional government.

The transitional government should recruit new DPR members, who would then amend the existing laws on political development, and organize a general election on the basis of the new laws. Normal political life would start again when new MPR members recruited from the general election held their general session to formulate new state policy guidelines and elect a new president and vice president. (riz)