Cabinet reshuffle isn't Mega's only alternative

Cabinet reshuffle isn't Mega's only alternative

Kornelius Purba, Staff Writer, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta,
korpur@yahoo.com

When President Megawati Soekarnoputri returned from her
European trip on Saturday, she received encouraging news about
her leadership: People are satisfied with her achievements and
consider that she has performed better than other top political
leaders, including Vice President Hamzah Haz and top politician
Amien Rais.

According to a survey carried out by Taylor Nelson Sofres
Indonesia and the International Foundation for Election System
(IFES) Indonesia, 53 percent of 3,580 respondents claimed they
were satisfied with her work performance.

Megawati's silence and nonconfrontational management, which
contrasts with her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid who often
provoked people's ire with his statements, can be regarded as a
plus factor for her. His habit of making a statement and then
changing it moments or hours later baffled many. Abdurrahman
would also readily change his ministers without clear reasons.
Abdurrahman's tongue was often regarded as the main cause of his
fall last year.

Megawati's better relationship with the Indonesian Military
(TNI) top brass has also been fruitful in reducing political
instability, although it is also clear that under her government,
the TNI has been able to quickly regain its self-confidence as a
dominant factor in the country's politics. The country's economy
is also slowly improving despite poor policies from the economic
team.

Ironically, the President's reluctance to bring former
president Soeharto and his cronies to court and settle gross
human rights and power abuses of his regime, may also contribute
to the political equilibrium of her government.

The President, who will have been in power for one year on
July 23, deserves praise despite her government's limited
breakthroughs.

However the survey also shows that only 34 percent of the
respondents viewed that her Cabinet had achieved some progress in
the economy. The people's support for her is an upbeat
development and she could move forward to strengthen her Cabinet
amid various controversies about some ministers.

Before the government signed its latest Letter of Intent (LoI)
with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on June 11, there were
open contentions among the Cabinet members themselves, especially
between Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs Dorodjatun
Kuntjoro-Jakti and the outspoken State Minister of National
Development Planning Kwik Kian Gie.

Kwik is known for his very critical stance toward the IMF,
although he himself also signed same commitments with the IMF
when he served as chief economic minister for about 10 months
under president Abdurrahman Wahid. Kwik has received strong
public support for his position. Kwik, of Chinese descent, is
among the very few politicians who have such strong credibility
with the public.

There is also no question of his personal integrity and his
sincere dedication to the nation. Kwik joined Megawati's camp
when only few people want to be known as a Megawati loyalist
during Soeharto's repressive regime.

But should Kwik remain in the Cabinet when he often speaks
against the Cabinet's own decisions? It might be better for all
if the President could provide a more appropriate position for
Kwik, where he can serve the nation in a more effective way than
staying in the Cabinet.

However, perhaps among the most disturbing political factors
for the President is the presence of State/Cabinet Secretary
Bambang Kesowo. The list of those who would prefer him out of the
government includes Hamzah Haz, Megawati's husband Taufik Kiemas,
Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
Perjuangan) and even journalists who cover the presidential
palace.

Bambang is under fire again, as the House of Representatives
(DPR) still cannot accept his explanation about the Presidential
Aid Fund (Banpres). There are various rumors about the fund,
including the involvement of the current administration.

Bambang started serving Megawati when she was still vice
president and she is still reportedly satisfied with his service
as he is an experienced bureaucrat. Until now Megawati is still
reluctant to reorganize the State Secretariat as demanded by
many.

Recently Bambang has become a liability for the President, but
there is still no sign that she will bow to pressure to dismiss
Bambang. A senior government official close to Megawati
commented: "The more she is pressured the more stubborn she will
become."

Tempo news weekly in its latest edition this week also quoted
Tjahjo Kumolo from PDI Perjuangan as indicating that the party
wants a Cabinet reshuffle, which includes the expulsion of
Dorodjatun, Bambang,and Minister of Defense Matori Abdul Djalil.
Many economists have criticized Dorodjatun for acting more like a
preacher than an economic czar. However, there was no explanation
provided about the party's reason to blacklist them.

Rifts in Indonesian Cabinets are nothing new. Soeharto was
clever in managing conflicts among his ministers because such
antagonism was important to maintain his position. Soeharto also
rarely changed his ministers in the middle of their five-year
terms. Megawati also can benefit from the manageable Cabinet'
conflicts, but seeing her personality she will not follow
Soeharto's dirty tricks.

With their own motives and interests, there are growing calls
from various parties for the President to reshuffle her Cabinet.
The question now is: What are the advantages and disadvantages of
changing her team? There is no guarantee that if she puts in
other people, even high-caliber economists, that economic policy
making and its implementation will be better.

The more urgent task for the government to consider is not
whether she should replace the personnel, but how the Cabinet's
decisions are implemented. There is little hope that the
government will have the guts to take drastic measures in law
enforcement to avoid a backfire from the opposition.

In making speeches before the public, Megawati is similar to
Soeharto. Megawati rarely makes off-the cuff remarks although
such statements are more colorful and meaningful than her
prepared speeches. In Soeharto's case, such statements were often
made to express his anger.

People may not realize that one of Megawati's most beneficial
traits is her introvert attitude and the fact that people tend to
underestimate her capability.

But in the words of one of her top secretaries: "She is much
smarter than many people think. She is firm in her opinion, even
her own husband cannot change her mind once she makes a
decision."