Cabinet reshuffle isn't Mega's only alternative

Kornelius Purba, Staff Writer, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta, korpur@yahoo.com

When President Megawati Soekarnoputri returned from her European trip on Saturday, she received encouraging news about her leadership: People are satisfied with her achievements and consider that she has performed better than other top political leaders, including Vice President Hamzah Haz and top politician Amien Rais.

According to a survey carried out by Taylor Nelson Sofres Indonesia and the International Foundation for Election System (IFES) Indonesia, 53 percent of 3,580 respondents claimed they were satisfied with her work performance.

Megawati's silence and nonconfrontational management, which contrasts with her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid who often provoked people's ire with his statements, can be regarded as a plus factor for her. His habit of making a statement and then changing it moments or hours later baffled many. Abdurrahman would also readily change his ministers without clear reasons. Abdurrahman's tongue was often regarded as the main cause of his fall last year.

Megawati's better relationship with the Indonesian Military (TNI) top brass has also been fruitful in reducing political instability, although it is also clear that under her government, the TNI has been able to quickly regain its self-confidence as a dominant factor in the country's politics. The country's economy is also slowly improving despite poor policies from the economic team.

Ironically, the President's reluctance to bring former president Soeharto and his cronies to court and settle gross human rights and power abuses of his regime, may also contribute to the political equilibrium of her government.

The President, who will have been in power for one year on July 23, deserves praise despite her government's limited breakthroughs.

However the survey also shows that only 34 percent of the respondents viewed that her Cabinet had achieved some progress in the economy. The people's support for her is an upbeat development and she could move forward to strengthen her Cabinet amid various controversies about some ministers.

Before the government signed its latest Letter of Intent (LoI) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on June 11, there were open contentions among the Cabinet members themselves, especially between Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and the outspoken State Minister of National Development Planning Kwik Kian Gie.

Kwik is known for his very critical stance toward the IMF, although he himself also signed same commitments with the IMF when he served as chief economic minister for about 10 months under president Abdurrahman Wahid. Kwik has received strong public support for his position. Kwik, of Chinese descent, is among the very few politicians who have such strong credibility with the public.

There is also no question of his personal integrity and his sincere dedication to the nation. Kwik joined Megawati's camp when only few people want to be known as a Megawati loyalist during Soeharto's repressive regime.

But should Kwik remain in the Cabinet when he often speaks against the Cabinet's own decisions? It might be better for all if the President could provide a more appropriate position for Kwik, where he can serve the nation in a more effective way than staying in the Cabinet.

However, perhaps among the most disturbing political factors for the President is the presence of State/Cabinet Secretary Bambang Kesowo. The list of those who would prefer him out of the government includes Hamzah Haz, Megawati's husband Taufik Kiemas, Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and even journalists who cover the presidential palace.

Bambang is under fire again, as the House of Representatives (DPR) still cannot accept his explanation about the Presidential Aid Fund (Banpres). There are various rumors about the fund, including the involvement of the current administration.

Bambang started serving Megawati when she was still vice president and she is still reportedly satisfied with his service as he is an experienced bureaucrat. Until now Megawati is still reluctant to reorganize the State Secretariat as demanded by many.

Recently Bambang has become a liability for the President, but there is still no sign that she will bow to pressure to dismiss Bambang. A senior government official close to Megawati commented: "The more she is pressured the more stubborn she will become."

Tempo news weekly in its latest edition this week also quoted Tjahjo Kumolo from PDI Perjuangan as indicating that the party wants a Cabinet reshuffle, which includes the expulsion of Dorodjatun, Bambang,and Minister of Defense Matori Abdul Djalil. Many economists have criticized Dorodjatun for acting more like a preacher than an economic czar. However, there was no explanation provided about the party's reason to blacklist them.

Rifts in Indonesian Cabinets are nothing new. Soeharto was clever in managing conflicts among his ministers because such antagonism was important to maintain his position. Soeharto also rarely changed his ministers in the middle of their five-year terms. Megawati also can benefit from the manageable Cabinet' conflicts, but seeing her personality she will not follow Soeharto's dirty tricks.

With their own motives and interests, there are growing calls from various parties for the President to reshuffle her Cabinet. The question now is: What are the advantages and disadvantages of changing her team? There is no guarantee that if she puts in other people, even high-caliber economists, that economic policy making and its implementation will be better.

The more urgent task for the government to consider is not whether she should replace the personnel, but how the Cabinet's decisions are implemented. There is little hope that the government will have the guts to take drastic measures in law enforcement to avoid a backfire from the opposition.

In making speeches before the public, Megawati is similar to Soeharto. Megawati rarely makes off-the cuff remarks although such statements are more colorful and meaningful than her prepared speeches. In Soeharto's case, such statements were often made to express his anger.

People may not realize that one of Megawati's most beneficial traits is her introvert attitude and the fact that people tend to underestimate her capability.

But in the words of one of her top secretaries: "She is much smarter than many people think. She is firm in her opinion, even her own husband cannot change her mind once she makes a decision."