C. Asia's dilemma over foreign policy

By Ian Traynor

MOSCOW: The impoverished post-Soviet states of central Asia are confronting their biggest foreign policy quandary since independence was secured a decade ago: whether and how to assist a U.S. onslaught on neighboring Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan became the first frontline state to issue a form of welcome to the Americans yesterday, announcing that it was "ready to discuss any form of cooperation in the struggle against international terrorism, including deployment of U.S. forces".

Tajikistan also said it was ready to discuss cooperation, but that no request had been made from the Americans.

A major factor is the position of Moscow, which ran the republics of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, as colonies and still views them proprietorially. And each state faces potential Islamist insurgencies of its own.

The Americans and the Russians discussed the issue face-to- face for the first time Monday when a senior U.S. state department official, John Bolton, met the Russian foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, in Moscow. Further top-level talks are planned for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, telephoned the presidents of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Monday to discuss "changes in the international political situation". And the head of Putin's security council, Vladimir Rushailo, has been dispatched to all countries in the region for talks on terrorism with officials, a Kremlin statement said.

Of the frontline states bordering Afghanistan, the Uzbeks are the keenest to help the Americans, the Tajiks are taking their lead from their masters in Moscow, and the Turkmens are professing neutrality.

President Islam Karimov, the authoritarian Uzbek leader, was nearly killed two years ago by a bomb attack in the Uzbek capital, Tashkent, that was blamed on Taliban-backed Islamic militants. His regime is keen to get even.

Uzbekistan has 100 miles of frontier with Afghanistan, and Tajikistan has 650 miles and well-equipped bases for forays to the south. But the bases are controlled by the Russians, who have said it is in conceivable that U.S. forces could use facilities in ex-Soviet central Asia.

Tajikistan has already fallen into line with Russia, although its foreign ministry said yesterday that it was ready for "cooperation with the U.S. in the fight against terrorism".

Turkmenistan, which also has a long border with Afghanistan, is the only one of the three central Asian states enjoying relatively stable relations with the Taliban regime and is the least likely contributor to a U.S. alliance.

Russia's approval appears necessary for any U.S. activity out of any central Asian states. But so far, while offering intelligence, political and diplomatic assistance to the Americans, the Kremlin has also set limits to its support, ruling out a military role.

Despite two decades of hostility towards the U.S., Iran has sent unprecedented signals of support. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, condemned the attacks Monday but said punishing Afghanistan might cause a human catastrophe and could trigger more problems for America. It has also announced the closure of its border with Afghanistan, apparently to prevent a flood of refugees, though this would also help the U.S. by closing escape routes for Bin Laden's supporters.

Pakistan, meanwhile, has promised to help the U.S. but has so far concentrated on trying to persuade the Taliban to hand over Bin Laden.

China has described the attacks on American cities as "barbaric" and has said it will join the fight against terrorism. But it is unlikely to allow U.S. forces on to its territory.

The Guardian