Bush's Taiwan arms decision sets direction of China ties

By Dave McIntyre

WASHINGTON (DPA): With the crew of a U.S. spy plane safely home after 12 days of detention in China, President George W. Bush faces yet another early foreign policy test this week in deciding what weapons to sell to Taiwan.

It's an annual ritual of request, consultation, bluster and threats in the trilateral diplomacy among Washington, Beijing and Taipei.

Observers in Washington believe Bush is likely to approve a strong weapons sale for Taiwan, though without the most sensitive item on Taipei's shopping list. Not to do so would risk criticism from conservatives who would charge that Bush had cut a secret deal with Beijing to bring the U.S. troops home.

In that context, this year's arms sale to Taiwan is more politically charged than ever, for a variety of reasons.

Bush campaigned last year against former president Bill Clinton's description of China as a "strategic partner", preferring to label Beijing as a "strategic competitor" of the United States. He pledged to increase U.S. efforts to help democratic Taiwan defend itself against communist China's military buildup.

When he took office in January, Bush made no effort to reach out to China's leadership. Although he accepted an invitation to Beijing for next October, he has not spoken with President Jiang Zemin, and Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen practically invited himself to Washington for the first high-level contacts with the new U.S. administration.

Some critics suggest that the initial cold-shoulder from Bush contributed to the tensions in the first few days after the April 1 collision of the U.S. reconnaissance plane with a Chinese fighter.

"If it were my administration, I would have sent my secretary of state to Beijing in the early days to meet with everyone in the Chinese leadership," Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts and an expert on Asia, said last week.

Yet from Washington's perspective, China has taken a series of measures that demonstrate its hostility toward Washington and its fear of Taiwan. These can only increase the pressure on Bush to approve a large measure of Taiwan's arms requests.

The most prominent sign of China's hostility was the detention of the U.S. air crew and the shrill tone of rhetoric out of Beijing. U.S. officials have tactfully described the Chinese tone as "unproductive".

Second, China in recent months has arrested several U.S. citizens and permanent residents of Chinese descent, accusing them of spying for Taiwan.

The most notorious was the 29-day detention of a 5-year-old boy, a U.S. citizen, in order to intimidate the boy's mother. The mother, a researcher at American University in Washington, is still jailed in China and has been charged with espionage.

Responding to those arrests, the State Department took the extraordinary step on Thursday of warning U.S. citizens not to travel to China if they have ever criticized the communist government or visited Taiwan.

Most relevant for the U.S. decision on Taiwan arms sales, China has continued its military buildup with an apparent intent to intimidate or blockade Taiwan.

It has deployed more than 300 missiles in Fujian province within striking distance of the island and purchased sophisticated destroyers and submarines from Russia to bolster its naval fleet.

So what arms will Bush decide to sell to Taipei?

The administration has signaled last week that it likely will not allow Taiwan to purchase the top item on its military wish list, four destroyers equipped with the Aegis missile defense radar system. The Pentagon does not believe Taiwan's navy could handle the sophisticated system, and China has warned explicitly that selling the Aegis would cause deep harm to U.S.-Chinese ties.

Yet even if Bush holds back on Aegis, he can send a strong signal to Beijing of U.S. determination to bolster Taiwan. For instance, he could order the Aegis destroyers for the U.S. Navy, with the possibility of selling them to Taiwan a few years from now if the military balance continues to shift in China's favor.

He could also sell P-3 anti-submarine warfare planes, as well as four older destroyers less sophisticated than the Aegis system. Or he could approve the sale of the newest Pershing defensive missile system to help counter China's missile buildup.

China watchers in Washington are waiting to see if Bush will approve the sale of submarines, another item high on Taiwan's wish list.

Submarines are considered offensive weapons, which Washington has refused to sell to Taiwan, but they could also be effective in fighting any Chinese naval blockade of the island.