Bush's February trip to Japan crucial

Thomas Snitch, The Daily Yomiuri, Asia News Network, Tokyo

Last July, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi traveled to Camp David, Maryland for meetings with U.S. President George W. Bush. By all accounts, both leaders took an immediate liking to each other, and there was a very frank exchange of views. With the president's reciprocal visit to Japan set for mid-February, both Bush and Koizumi face a very different set of circumstances from last summer.

The attacks of Sept. 11 and the war in Afghanistan have dramatically altered the world situation. However, in many regards, the U.S.-Japan security relationship is now stronger than ever. The decisions by Japan to become actively involved in the Afghan campaign has served to strengthen these ties, and the president will praise these actions during his visit to Tokyo. At the same time, the deepening economic problems in Japan may cast a gloomy shadow on the overall proceedings.

Presidential spokesman Ari Fleischer has said that "the president will discuss our common struggle against terrorism, economic recovery, the strengthening of our alliances in the region and other areas of mutual interest." That said, what can we realistically expect from the Bush-Koizumi meetings in Tokyo?

First and foremost, these meetings will serve to reaffirm the depth and overall strength of the U.S.-Japan relationship. Bush will acknowledge Koizumi's assistance in shepherding legislation through the Diet, in near record time, that allowed Japan to deploy naval assets to the Indian Ocean. This was the first time in over 50 years that Japanese vessels have ventured into a war zone, albeit for noncombat purposes. Yet, this is truly a major step for Japan as it moves to play a greater role in Asian security activities.

Bush should thank the prime minister and all of Japan for their help in the war against terrorism. This may also be a useful point of departure for ongoing discussions on Japan's gaining a permanent seat at the UN Security Council.

The president will look to engage Japan in continuing the battle against terrorism, and part of this activity will require major international efforts to help stabilize and rebuild Afghanistan. This will probably be the theme of the president's message in his address to the Diet. Additionally, Japan and Japanese industry can play a major role in this effort since one of the first problems that must be addressed is the demining of the Afghan countryside.

There are literally millions of land mines scattered throughout that nation. All other efforts at recovery will be controlled by the pace at which large parcels of land can be safely cleared of mines and unexploded ordinance. Japanese industry has been working on building robots that could be deployed to assist in this dangerous effort, and so, it would be particularly useful for Koizumi to arrange a demonstration of these robots for the U.S. president. This in turn would highlight a specific area where Japan can be of great assistance to the international community in rebuilding Afghanistan.

On a broader level, Bush and Koizumi need to talk about China, the Korean Peninsula, missile defense and growing instability in both South and Southeast Asia.

The two leaders need to think about how to further engage China as a responsible member of the international community. Chinese membership in the World Trade Organization and statements from Beijing about the need to confront the challenge of international terrorism are positive indications that the United States and Japan can work to further normalize ties with China.

North Korea will be high on the agenda of the Tokyo meetings and for very good reason. In his State of the Union address, Bush called North Korea part of the evil axis of international regimes that look to acquire and export weapons of mass destruction. The simple fact is that the United States remains ready to meet with the North Koreans at any place and at any time to discuss issues of mutual concern. The Bush administration has not sought to freeze relations with the North, even though that is what Pyongyang would have the world believe. The demands by North Korea that Bush return to the policies of the previous administration are absurd. He can set the record straight in his discussions with Koizumi about the U.S. position and share some of the intelligence that has led him to make these most recent charges. Tokyo, Seoul and Washington need to be on the same page of the playbook and continue to work to reengage Pyongyang. Japan can play a major role in this effort.

Sept. 11 has also shown the world that serious threats to democracy and freedom remain and many adversaries remain committed to harming Western interests. That is one reason that the United States and Bush will ask Japan to continue their research efforts on missile defense. Japan has been a partner of the United States in research for many years and both nations should commit to continuing to work toward a viable missile defense. The recent U.S. successes in testing ship-based missile interceptors should be fully explained to all interested parties in Japan.

South and Southeast Asia present many challenges to the United States and Japan. While the immediate tensions between two nuclear-armed nations, India and Pakistan, have lessened, the long-term threat remains. Japan can be of great help in trying to help these nations find common ground on a number of difficult issues. Bush and Koizumi should pledge to act in concert with other concerned nations to try to find some type of solution to the Kashmir problem.

Turning to the economic arena, Bush is likely to continue to use his administration's approach that Japan, and only Japan, can solve its economic woes. While the United States can help in some limited areas, the onus will be on Koizumi to push forward with his plans for economic reform and restructuring. The reports that Japan's Resolution and Collection Corporation has begun to dispose of bad loans is an encouraging development. While the initial action to resell 150 nonperforming loans (NPLs) valued at 100 billion yen is a tiny drop in the bucket, it is movement in the right direction. Bush should acknowledge Japan's efforts to tackle the NPL issue and encourage Koizumi to redouble his efforts to get these bad loans off the books. The prime minister must fully explain his efforts to the president while providing some insights into how his reform plan will unfold.

Recent comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has served to continue to lift the dollar against the yen. However, an overall mentality to "sell Japan" is growing, and the danger of this is that it will lead to continue capital flight from Japan and further erosion of the yen. A number of major U.S. corporations are pressing the president to confront Koizumi on this issue. Therefore, Bush and Koizumi need to talk about ways that this cycle can be stopped and the yen be put back on more firm footing.

Japan must realize that it cannot export its way out of its economic woes with a cheap yen.

The Bush-Koizumi meetings in Tokyo will be another opportunity for these two leaders to build upon their strong personal relationship.

It will also be a forum for the world's two largest economies to discuss ways to reinvigorate the global economy. Yet, the most important part of these meetings will be the chance for Japan and the United States to demonstrate to the world that the two nations stand inexorably linked in the fight against terrorism. This alone makes the visit of President Bush to Japan and his time spent with Prime Minister Koizumi an extremely important event.