Bush the conciliator

The American presidential race is not quite over, but it now appears almost certain that Texas Governor George W. Bush will move into the White House on January 20. Thus it is important to understand what kind of leadership Mr. Bush can provide after taking this peculiar road to the top.

The answer is that his authority will be limited in some ways, while many favored presidential plans will never clear the Congress.

Yet he will have vast powers at his disposal and, if he proves the conciliator he claims to be, Mr. Bush could well achieve a credible record as America's 43rd chief executive.

He will not start as the popular choice. Mr. Bush won 300,000 fewer votes nationally than did Mr. Gore and, when ballots for minor candidates are added, a clear majority voted against him. Neither did he lead his party to great success. A small Republican majority in the House of Representatives grew slightly smaller, while a Senate majority disappeared entirely the upper house is split 50-50.

Likewise, he relies heavily on his vice-presidential choice, Dick Cheney, who recently suffered a fourth heart attack and, according to some doctors, is a prime candidate for another before his four-year term ends. For senior posts, Mr. Bush is recycling many who served his father a decade ago, which suggests both strengths and limitations.

Yet the Oval Office offers great opportunities. The Congress is more centrist than ideological, and a conciliatory President Bush could push through modest but effective changes in many key domestic areas -- taxes, pensions, education and the like -- even if grander plans must be put aside. On foreign policy, the president will lead as always, though he must have congressional support to remain effective.

Mr. Bush will also have the power of appointment, though the need for Senate confirmation will restrict his ability to choose hardline conservatives for many posts. Even so, his selections will administer antitrust laws, regulate financial institutions, head consumer protection agencies and apply environmental rules. He will also nominate new federal judges, including perhaps three or four to the Supreme Court. All these can set both the tone and substance of government.

Mr. Bush campaigned as a conciliator able to reduce tension between executive and legislative branches. If so, he could post a record respectable enough to win a second term with, this time, a majority on his side.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong