Bush shows he plans to get tough with Iraq

By Jonathan Wright

WASHINGTON (Reuters): President George W. Bush, with air strikes near Baghdad on Friday, showed that he plans to get tough with Iraq and that the military component will be prominent in a new policy toward Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, his father's old enemy, analysts said.

Bush and the Pentagon said the attack on Iraqi air defenses near the capital was a routine response to an increase in Iraq's attempts to shoot down Western planes enforcing the ban on Iraqi flights south of the 33rd parallel.

But Bush did personally approve the mission, and the analysts said they doubted that former U.S. President Bill Clinton would have reacted in the same way.

"The Bush administration clearly intends to be much tougher on Iraq, whether through economic sanctions or military actions. This suggest that we will respond to targets of our choosing, targets close to the regime," said Peter Rodman, director of national security programs at the Nixon Center.

"The Bush administration has sent signals that it will not be as restrained as the Clinton administration has been for the last two years," added Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington.

"This helps show that the United States is serious about Iraq. It could be the beginning of a concerted U.S. campaign against Iraq," he added.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger, asked on CNN if the attack was a tough message from Bush, said: "Oh yes, very much so and I would say it's more than about time ... I hope they keep it up."

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has ordered a review of policy toward Iraq, with the emphasis on depriving the government of military supplies, especially for weapons of mass destruction, and simultaneously allaying Arab concerns that food and medicine are not reaching the Iraqi people.

The other component of the new Iraq policy, apparently still under discussion within the Bush administration, is helping the Iraqi opposition in the campaign to oust Saddam.

Ahmad Chalabi, a member of the six-man leadership of the opposition Iraqi National Congress, was at the U.S. State Department on Friday at about the time of the air strikes.

"I think this (the raids) signals a serious development because Saddam must now be on guard. The Iraqi people (are) going to get him and the United States is helping them achieve liberation and freedom," he told reporters.

"They understand that Saddam is a serious threat and they are moving quickly to deal with him," he added.

Shibley Telhami, a fellow of the Brookings Institution, said he agreed that the air strikes were a signal of toughness, possibly linked to Powell's Middle East trip this week.

"It's obvious the new Bush administration has developed a plan to be more responsive on humanitarian concerns and tougher on military matters, by broadening the range of targets. It is part of a pattern that is likely to be ongoing," he said.

"They are sending a message they will remain relentless in their pursuit of the Iraqi government, through this kind of action and covert support for the opposition," he added.

The tricky part of the strategy would be to separate the civilian and the military aspects in the minds of Arab public opinion, which has shifted strongly against UN sanctions.

An aggressive military strategy might help win over conservative Arab leaders, in Saudi Arabia for example, but without public support even these leaders will find it difficult to cooperate too closely, Telhami said.

Steven Zunes, a liberal professor of politics at the University of San Francisco, said an escalation in military action by the United States and Britain would tend to isolate them in the international community, even in the Gulf states they say they are acting to protect from an Iraqi threat.

"The United States and Britain are playing right into this cycle of violence, which ends up strengthening the militarists on both sides and often times killing Iraqi civilians and unwilling Iraqi conscripts," he added.

Phyllis Bennis, a fellow at the progressive Institute for Policy Studies, predicted the policy would backfire by antagonizing Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the countries from which U.S. warplanes take off to patrol the skies over Iraq.

"This is not a major escalation but it is about showing how tough we are. They came to office saying they would be tougher but it was illegal then and it's illegal now," she added.