Bush or Kerry, next U.S. president and East Asia

Jusuf Wanandi, Jakarta

Bush or Kerry? East Asia also has a stake in the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections.

This is so, not only because the U.S. is the sole superpower for the foreseeable future, it is perhaps more important because the outcome will determine what kind of a society the U.S. will be in the future. Will it be one that is self-assured in its fundamental creed and beliefs as well as assertive and sometimes even arrogant in its actions and policies, or will it be one that is willing to share, to reach out, to involve others and to rebuild an American Community that is at ease with the world, despite new challenges that have to be opposed and won.

This is surely not only on specific issues such as how to deal with the war in Iraq or how to find a balanced solution to the Israel-Palestine question, but also on how it faces global terrorism. It is also not just on how to overcome the impact of a double-digit deficit, the impact of the tax cut on future budgets, the solution to the social security deficit in the future or to have a health care policy that could minimize the plight of 50 million Americans not covered by health insurance. It is also more than such social issues as abortion, stem cell research and gay marriage. It is essentially about whether the U.S. will remain an amenable society, full of communal spirit, and cooperation with each other, where the center is going to be dominant instead of being divided, and where Americans would be at ease with themselves and the world as they were through the 1990s.

In the debates on all those issues, East Asia has been left out, except on the problem of nuclear proliferation involving North Korea, particularly on the question as to whether the U.S. should engage in direct, bilateral talks with North Korea, in addition to the six party talks.

East Asia appears to be divided on the U.S. presidential elections, although the main international issues are outside the region, namely the Middle East, and particularly Iraq. Koizumi, Arroyo and Howard favor Bush. Others, like Roh or Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono are pro-Kerry.

The U.S. should pay attention to this region, because future strategic developments are likely going to be in East Asia. The North Korean proliferation could open up a Pandora's box, forcing others in the region, such as South Korea, Japan and even Taiwan to go nuclear for the sake of deterrence and their safety.

The China-Taiwan relationship is now at a low ebb, and a more pro-active U.S. position is what has been expected by the region to keep the situation under control as Colin Powell tried to do during his recent visit to China.

The future establishment of an East Asian Community needs a more open-minded U.S. In the future, East Asia promises to be the most dynamic region economically, and it is in the U.S. interest to participate in that. What a diverse region such as East Asia needs is a U.S. that can appreciate nuance and finesse. This is also of critical importance in her fight against global and regional terrorism, because the threat varies from one region to the other. East Asia has an interest to see a U.S. president that can appreciate differences and make use of those differences to its advantage.

To be able to do that, the leader first has to give the example domestically and appreciate the efforts to create a centrist majority in the U.S. political spectrum. At this stage, it is likely that only somebody like John Kerry can do this. John Kerry is a consensus builder. This is critical, not only for the U.S., in its efforts to overcome the impact of September 11, but also for the world.

The writer is a co-founder and member of the Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).