Bush may demand bigger Japanese defense role in the region

By Gaku Shibata and Keiko Iizuka

TOKYO: The administration of U.S. President-elect George W. Bush, who will be inaugurated Saturday, is likely to urge Japan to shoulder a greater burden in maintaining peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region, according to analysts.

The U.S. request may come when the two nations seek to further shore up bilateral relations after Bush is sworn in as the 43rd president of the United States, the analysts said.

In light of several factors contributing to the military instability in the region, however, the Bush administration seems unlikely to make large cutbacks in the U.S. military presence.

Another focus of the bilateral relationship will be on whether the controversy over the Japanese government's position on the right to collective self-defense will develop further.

Japan looks like a U.S. fortress in the Asia-Pacific region, given the U.S. military bases and other facilities built across this country.

In Okinawa Prefecture, whose geographical position gives it strategic importance, the United States has Kadena Air Base--the U.S. Air Force's largest facility in the Far East--where the U.S. Marine Corps deploys its only expeditionary force overseas. A huge supply base also has been established there.

In Aomori Prefecture, the U.S. Air Force has Misawa Air Base, from which it deploys F-16 fighter jets to monitor Russia and the Korean Peninsula.

The U.S. Navy's presence in Japan is no less conspicuous. The U.S. Yokosuka Naval Base in Kanagawa Prefecture serves as home port for 7th Fleet, which flexed its military muscle during the crisis that developed between Taiwan and China shortly before the 1996 Taiwanese presidential election.

Stationed at Sasebo Naval Base in Nagasaki Prefecture is a fleet of amphibious assault landing ships that can play a key role in deploying marines.

The strategic objective of the U.S. military forces stationed in Japan -- which constitute about half of the overall military strength of the U.S. forces deployed throughout the Asia-Pacific region--shifted from the containment of the Soviet Union during the Cold War to the maintenance of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

However, the U.S. military forces in Japan still remain key to U.S. national interests and the U.S. strategy of forward deployment in the region.

The specific merits for the United States in maintaining its military forces and facilities in Japan include the following:

* Shifting the United States' first line of defense in Asia to along Asian shores instead of placing it somewhere in the eastern Pacific.

* Maintaining military control over such strategically important points as the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait and the Malacca Strait.

* Securing the largest supply base for the 7th Fleet, whose sphere covers sea-lanes spanning from Guam to the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf.

Regarding the deployment of the U.S. military forces in Japan, a high-ranking official in charge of defense policy planning at the headquarters of the U.S. forces at Yokota Air Base in northwestern Tokyo has indicated there is no plan for a major review of their size or makeup in the near future.

While the United States has welcomed the beginning of dialogue between North and South Korea, there has been no progress in terms of security, the official said, adding that there also are destabilizing factors in Southeast Asia.

As to the future of the U.S. military presence in Japan, a former high-ranking Defense Agency official predicted that its strategic importance would increase.

"Compared with any Democrat-led administration, when in power the Republican Party, whose relations with China have traditionally been sensitive, has tended to put priority on the Japan-U.S. security alliance," said Tetsuya Nishimoto, a former chairman of the agency's Joint Staff Council and currently an adviser to Toshiba Corp.

According to Nishimoto's analysis, the inauguration of the Bush administration will augment the strategic importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance. "U.S. expectations and demands for Japan's deeper involvement in defense under the framework of the alliance will grow further," he said.

Nishimoto's remarks imply that greater importance placed on the alliance is likely to lead to Japan's shouldering a larger burden rather than the United States beefing up its troop presence.

In fact, a growing number of specialists in U.S. defense circles have recently started calling for a flexible review of the strength of all U.S. armed forces.

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage has stated that Bush probably will undertake a comprehensive review of the organization and makeup of the entire U.S. military in addition to the Quadrennial Defense Review--an assessment of military strategy and priorities conducted by the U.S. Defense Department every four years.

Armitage has also said that the new administration should discuss the meaning of stationing U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific region and their combat capability.

Last October, a bipartisan study group of U.S. experts on Asian security compiled a report urging a review of the strength of the U.S. military presence in the entire Pacific region, including those stationed in Japan, which totals about 100,000 troops. Armitage and Joseph Nye, a former senior Pentagon official in the Clinton administration who is now dean of Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School, were members of the study group.

The report also urged that the next U.S. administration reappraise the numerical troop strength, composition and deployment of the Pacific-based U.S. forces in accordance with the progress of military technology and changes in the international situation.

According to the report, the Japanese government's stance that its interpretation of the current Constitution does not allow exercising the right to collective self-defense throws a spanner into the Japan-U.S. alliance.

Therefore, the study group demanded that Japan take on more responsibility in maintaining Asia's security. Similar views have been increasingly voiced by U.S. military officials posted in Japan. One such official said he would be closely following the progress of Diet debates on reviewing Article 9 of the Constitution.

The official's stance implies that, depending on the progress of the debates, the scope of the Japan-U.S. alliance could expand, potentially leading to changes in the makeup of the U.S. military forces in Japan.

Adm. Dennis Blair, commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, has advocated a scheme that could evolve into the foundation for a collective security framework covering the entire Asia region by repeatedly conducting joint drills between the U.S. military forces in Japan or South Korea and military forces of other Asian countries.

Needless to say, Blair has placed highest priority on reinforcing security alliances with countries in the region.

To sum up, the future U.S. strategy in terms of security may be to demand that each Asian country shoulder a burden equivalent to the benefits it enjoys under its security alliance with the United States.

Apparently in response to such U.S. moves, more and more Japanese government officials have adopted a positive stance toward what a senior Liberal Democratic Party member who has served as Defense Agency director general termed "active discussions on the Constitution in view of the right to collective self-defense."

However, it may require considerable nerve for incumbent or prospective Diet members or party leaders to discuss such issues in depth as the next House of Councillors election is just months away.

Gaku Shibata is a correspondent in Washington, and Keiko Iizuka, a staff writer in Tokyo.

-- The Yomiuri Shimbun