Bush may demand bigger Japanese defense role in the region
Bush may demand bigger Japanese defense role in the region
By Gaku Shibata and Keiko Iizuka
TOKYO: The administration of U.S. President-elect George W.
Bush, who will be inaugurated Saturday, is likely to urge Japan
to shoulder a greater burden in maintaining peace and security in
the Asia-Pacific region, according to analysts.
The U.S. request may come when the two nations seek to further
shore up bilateral relations after Bush is sworn in as the 43rd
president of the United States, the analysts said.
In light of several factors contributing to the military
instability in the region, however, the Bush administration seems
unlikely to make large cutbacks in the U.S. military presence.
Another focus of the bilateral relationship will be on whether
the controversy over the Japanese government's position on the
right to collective self-defense will develop further.
Japan looks like a U.S. fortress in the Asia-Pacific region,
given the U.S. military bases and other facilities built across
this country.
In Okinawa Prefecture, whose geographical position gives it
strategic importance, the United States has Kadena Air Base--the
U.S. Air Force's largest facility in the Far East--where the U.S.
Marine Corps deploys its only expeditionary force overseas. A
huge supply base also has been established there.
In Aomori Prefecture, the U.S. Air Force has Misawa Air Base,
from which it deploys F-16 fighter jets to monitor Russia and the
Korean Peninsula.
The U.S. Navy's presence in Japan is no less conspicuous. The
U.S. Yokosuka Naval Base in Kanagawa Prefecture serves as home
port for 7th Fleet, which flexed its military muscle during the
crisis that developed between Taiwan and China shortly before the
1996 Taiwanese presidential election.
Stationed at Sasebo Naval Base in Nagasaki Prefecture is a
fleet of amphibious assault landing ships that can play a key
role in deploying marines.
The strategic objective of the U.S. military forces stationed
in Japan -- which constitute about half of the overall military
strength of the U.S. forces deployed throughout the Asia-Pacific
region--shifted from the containment of the Soviet Union during
the Cold War to the maintenance of peace and stability in the
Asia-Pacific region.
However, the U.S. military forces in Japan still remain key to
U.S. national interests and the U.S. strategy of forward
deployment in the region.
The specific merits for the United States in maintaining its
military forces and facilities in Japan include the following:
* Shifting the United States' first line of defense in Asia to
along Asian shores instead of placing it somewhere in the eastern
Pacific.
* Maintaining military control over such strategically important
points as the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait and the Malacca
Strait.
* Securing the largest supply base for the 7th Fleet, whose
sphere covers sea-lanes spanning from Guam to the Indian Ocean to
the Persian Gulf.
Regarding the deployment of the U.S. military forces in Japan,
a high-ranking official in charge of defense policy planning at
the headquarters of the U.S. forces at Yokota Air Base in
northwestern Tokyo has indicated there is no plan for a major
review of their size or makeup in the near future.
While the United States has welcomed the beginning of dialogue
between North and South Korea, there has been no progress in
terms of security, the official said, adding that there also are
destabilizing factors in Southeast Asia.
As to the future of the U.S. military presence in Japan, a
former high-ranking Defense Agency official predicted that its
strategic importance would increase.
"Compared with any Democrat-led administration, when in power
the Republican Party, whose relations with China have
traditionally been sensitive, has tended to put priority on the
Japan-U.S. security alliance," said Tetsuya Nishimoto, a former
chairman of the agency's Joint Staff Council and currently an
adviser to Toshiba Corp.
According to Nishimoto's analysis, the inauguration of the
Bush administration will augment the strategic importance of the
Japan-U.S. alliance. "U.S. expectations and demands for Japan's
deeper involvement in defense under the framework of the alliance
will grow further," he said.
Nishimoto's remarks imply that greater importance placed on
the alliance is likely to lead to Japan's shouldering a larger
burden rather than the United States beefing up its troop
presence.
In fact, a growing number of specialists in U.S. defense
circles have recently started calling for a flexible review of
the strength of all U.S. armed forces.
Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage
has stated that Bush probably will undertake a comprehensive
review of the organization and makeup of the entire U.S. military
in addition to the Quadrennial Defense Review--an assessment of
military strategy and priorities conducted by the U.S. Defense
Department every four years.
Armitage has also said that the new administration should
discuss the meaning of stationing U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific
region and their combat capability.
Last October, a bipartisan study group of U.S. experts on
Asian security compiled a report urging a review of the strength
of the U.S. military presence in the entire Pacific region,
including those stationed in Japan, which totals about 100,000
troops. Armitage and Joseph Nye, a former senior Pentagon
official in the Clinton administration who is now dean of Harvard
University's John F. Kennedy School, were members of the study
group.
The report also urged that the next U.S. administration
reappraise the numerical troop strength, composition and
deployment of the Pacific-based U.S. forces in accordance with
the progress of military technology and changes in the
international situation.
According to the report, the Japanese government's stance that
its interpretation of the current Constitution does not allow
exercising the right to collective self-defense throws a spanner
into the Japan-U.S. alliance.
Therefore, the study group demanded that Japan take on more
responsibility in maintaining Asia's security. Similar views have
been increasingly voiced by U.S. military officials posted in
Japan. One such official said he would be closely following the
progress of Diet debates on reviewing Article 9 of the
Constitution.
The official's stance implies that, depending on the progress
of the debates, the scope of the Japan-U.S. alliance could
expand, potentially leading to changes in the makeup of the U.S.
military forces in Japan.
Adm. Dennis Blair, commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific
Command, has advocated a scheme that could evolve into the
foundation for a collective security framework covering the
entire Asia region by repeatedly conducting joint drills between
the U.S. military forces in Japan or South Korea and military
forces of other Asian countries.
Needless to say, Blair has placed highest priority on
reinforcing security alliances with countries in the region.
To sum up, the future U.S. strategy in terms of security may
be to demand that each Asian country shoulder a burden equivalent
to the benefits it enjoys under its security alliance with the
United States.
Apparently in response to such U.S. moves, more and more
Japanese government officials have adopted a positive stance
toward what a senior Liberal Democratic Party member who has
served as Defense Agency director general termed "active
discussions on the Constitution in view of the right to
collective self-defense."
However, it may require considerable nerve for incumbent or
prospective Diet members or party leaders to discuss such issues
in depth as the next House of Councillors election is just months
away.
Gaku Shibata is a correspondent in Washington, and Keiko
Iizuka, a staff writer in Tokyo.
-- The Yomiuri Shimbun