Bush emphasis on Latam, Asia tracks immigration trends

By Tom Raum

WASHINGTON (AP): While nursing ties with old-world allies, President George W. Bush has been reaching out aggressively to forge new alliances in Latin America and Asia. Regardless of foreign policy concerns, this could be smart politics for him at home.

Demographically, the United States is increasingly Hispanic and Asian. A declining majority traces its ancestry to Europe.

Administration officials deny a deliberate policy shift. But Bush's dispute-littered trip to Europe underscored strains in the trans-Atlantic relationship.

On his first working day back last week, the president renewed his campaign to get Congress to reinstate lapsed trade- negotiating powers. "One of my top priorities," he told a business audience.

The prime beneficiary of the legislation: negotiations to expand an existing North American free-trade zone with Canada and Mexico to bring in all of Latin America. Next in the wings is a similar proposed pact with Asia-Pacific nations. The United States also is pursuing individual free-trade agreements with Singapore, Chile and Jordan.

Meanwhile, commerce between the U.S. and Europe remains troubled by frequent trade disputes.

The breakup of the Soviet empire also brought a change in military priorities.

"If there's an emerging threat, it's in the (Persian) Gulf or in Asia, and not in Europe," said Anthony Cordesman, an analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Even Bush's rationale for his missile defense shield assumes that any potential threat would come from an unstable regime like North Korea, Iran or Iraq -- not Russia, with its vast nuclear arsenal.

Census Bureau figures show an explosion in Hispanic and Asian immigration into the United States over the past decade. Whites now make up about 75 percent of the population, Hispanics and blacks just over 12 percent each, and Asians nearly 4 percent.

But by 2020, the Hispanic population is expected to grow to 20 percent and Asians to about 6 percent. By mid-century, Americans of European ancestry will be in the minority if these trends continue.

The former Texas governor has courted Hispanic votes throughout his political career. Bush's first international trip as president was to Mexico. And his first stop on his European tour was Spain.

While still in Europe, he announced an end to the Navy's bombing exercises on Vieques Island off Puerto Rico -- a hot political issue with Hispanic voters, particularly those with ties to Puerto Rico.

Democrats have long assumed the immigrant vote to be their franchise, enjoying an image as the party favoring blue-collar interests, ethnic diversity and social services. But Republicans have been making inroads, even if they still have a way to go.

In the 2000 presidential election, Hispanics gave Bush 35 percent of their vote and Gore 62 percent. Bush did slightly better among Asian-Americans -- 44 percent to 55 percent for Gore. Among blacks, only 9 percent voted for Bush, 90 percent for Gore.

Blacks accounted for 10 percent of all who voted, Hispanics 7 percent and Asians 2 percent.

Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the surge in Hispanic and Asian immigration presents some interesting policy issues. "Certainly, politicians are not oblivious to where the votes are, and they know that most ethnic voters have sustained interest in their countries of origin," he said.

But he said it would be a mistake for the U.S. to turn its back on Europe. "Looking forward, you want to have Europe for partnership and political support. If you have political opposition from Europe, you're really in trouble."

Bush himself paid lighthearted fealty to past European immigration patterns when asked at a news conference in Warsaw about Poles seeking hard-to-obtain U.S. visas. "Poles are welcome in America," Bush said in the Polish capital. "Chicago is a city with many, many people of Polish heritage. I would hope that it's easy to travel to our country."

There's little doubt that U.S. corporations -- and the Bush administration -- are giving particular emphasis to new markets in developing nations in Asia and Latin America.

In fact, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick has been playing the two regions against each other.

In Asia earlier this month, Zoellick suggested that the United States would take its business to Latin America if Asian countries didn't move faster in lowering trade barriers. He made an identical, but contrary, argument on a visit to Latin America in March.

Zoellick defended this strategy. "By doing so, frankly, we increase U.S. leverage and we increase our influence," he said.