Burma move poses risks for ASEAN
The admission to membership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations of Burma, Cambodia and Laos is a turning point in the history of ASEAN and possibly a defining moment for Southeast Asia more generally. Admitting the countries completes the vision of the ASEAN-10, so that the association encompasses all 10 nations of Southeast Asia, with a combined population of half a billion people. From modest beginnings in 1967, ASEAN is now one of the world's most successful regional groupings, pioneering regional security dialogue, promoting economic co-operation and setting much of the diplomatic agenda for the wider East Asian region.
But acceptance of the three new members was controversial. Laos is the poorest country in the region, Cambodia the most unstable and Burma the most internationally unpopular. There were questions about whether Cambodia and Laos could meaningfully participate in ASEAN's activities and about whether allowing Burma in would encourage Rangoon's repressive instincts.
It would be wrong, however, to be overly cynical about ASEAN's motivation. The inclusion of Burma in ASEAN's expansion was promoted strongly by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir, who is the current head of the ASEAN council, and Indonesian President Soeharto. Both are powerful figures within the organization. That said, ASEAN has made precisely the calculation it made when it admitted Vietnam, another country with a poor human rights record, to membership. It believed that by bringing Vietnam into the fold, it could decisively influence the course of Vietnam's economic and political development.
This is not an unreasonable view for ASEAN to take. It is more likely that Burma will be influenced to show greater respect for its citizens' human rights as a result of economic development than as a result of isolation. ASEAN also is rightly concerned that there be some counter-balance to China's overwhelming influence in Burma.
ASEAN's move shows the ineffectiveness of Australian policy towards Burma. It is impossible for the U.S., Europe or Australia to isolate Burma if China, ASEAN and India are pursuing a policy of constructive engagement.
-- The Australian