Bosnia's new offensive

Suddenly this week the government of Bosnia-Herzegovina felt the need to tell the world that it still has the capability to turn the table on the Serbs in some places. The capture of the Serb-held town of Kupress in the southwestern part of the country yesterday by the Bosnian government's 7th Army Corps and the Bosnian Croat HVO forces has proven Bosnian determination. The Serbs, who managed to seize more than 70 percent of the country at the beginning of the brutal war 30 months ago and who have been too arrogant to accept the reality that they have never been entirely in control to date, now have to admit a major loss.

However, it is too early to believe this is the beginning of the end for the Serbs who have proven themselves to be among the most vindictive people in history. They have brutally included ethnic cleansing, rape, and barbarianism into their war tactics.

In response, in August, the Bosnian Army Commander Gen. Rasim Delic said that the liberation campaign had just really gotten started. The timing was then not fully understood outside his country because his government had asked the United States to postpone its idea of requesting that the UN Security Council lift the arms embargo against Bosnia-Herzegovina.

On paper, as many NATO military experts have said, the Bosnian Serb Army is still too powerful for the Bosnians and Bosnian Croats combined to fight. They said the Serb army still has the advantage due to the heavy weapons they inherited from the Yugoslav National Army when it left Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1991. The weapons included 330 tanks, which the Serbs have effectively used to overrun Bosnian positions.

On the other hand, some experts believe that the Serbs may not be strong enough to defend the 1,700 kilometers (1,100 miles) of front line. So General Delic and other military leaders in Sarajevo might share the opinion of military experts -- as published by an independent Belgrade-based magazine recently -- that the Serb army is far weaker than NATO has believed.

Out of the Serb forces' 80,000 soldiers, the experts estimate that only 10,000 are professional. The rest are peasants who are reluctant to fight far from home. And its tanks are mostly old models they have been cannibalizing for spare parts.

This is perhaps what has brought the Bosnian leaders to believe they will be able to regain the lost territory. After all Bosnia-Herzegovina has more manpower. So although Gen. Delic's statement yesterday that Bosnian soldiers have better tactics and motivation and will be able to overcome the lack of heavy weapons may sound optimistic, it is certainly not without truth.

His determination sounds like that of the Vietnamese guerrillas in their war against the mighty U.S. troops in the 1960s and early 1970s. The Bosnian army, with the help of the Bosnian Croat HVO forces, seems now to be waging a partisan war like the one conducted by Josip Broz Tito's resistance army against Hitler's troops during World War II.

The fall of Kupress has at least proven that the Serbs are vulnerable to lightning attacks, as the Belgrade analysts had predicted in August.

However, whether the Kupress victory means that the Bosnian offensive will go on through the winter, or just constitutes a test of the Serb army's strength, one thing is sure: the Bosnian leaders have taken matters more firmly into their own hands.