Border clash a symptom of dangers for India

By John Chalmers

NEW DELHI (Reuters): It may have been a local skirmish on a far-flung border but last week's clash between Indian and Bangladeshi troops was also a symptom of the dangers that encircle the world's largest democracy.

With the possible exception of the perennial hostility between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, the irritants New Delhi faces in its neighborhood are not enough to threaten its security.

But illegal immigration, drug-smuggling, insurgents sheltering across frontiers and disputes over water, borders and trade are constant headaches for India's policy-makers.

"There are in-built handicaps for India in its dealings with neighbors, stemming from the asymmetry in size, population, economic strength and resources," The Hindu newspaper's consulting editor, K.K. Katyal said.

"It creates presumptions of a hegemonistic approach among them while New Delhi is caught in fears of a gang-up."

Katyal said that India is a major factor on political agendas in neighboring countries, and anti-India feelings can easily be whipped up to achieve political ends.

Take, for instance, the mob attacks on businesses owned by Indians or people of Indian origin in Nepal last December. The unrest was sparked by rumors that Indian movie heartthrob Hrithik Roshan had made derogatory comments about Nepal.

But Roshan denied making any such slur, and Indian officials say the whole incident may have been engineered by Pakistan's secret service, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).

Many believe that, in the same way, forces opposed to New Delhi were behind last week's confrontation on the border with Bangladesh in which 16 Indian and three Bangladeshi troops died.

On the face of it, the occupation of a narrow strip of land in India's northeastern state of Meghalaya by Bangladesh Rifles troops -- the trigger for the clash -- was clearly due to an unresolved problem over the 4,000-km (2,500-mile) border.

The hurried partition of India in 1947 left a host of small enclaves, known as "adverse possessions", occupied by Indians in what was then East Pakistan and vice-versa.

But Indian analysts say the Bangladesh Rifles' move into one such enclave may have been planned by elements within the military who are sympathetic to Begum Khaleda Zia's opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

According to this theory, stirring up tension on the border could embarrass Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina -- who is branded by her rivals as an Indian stooge -- ahead of elections there.

Hasina's father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, led the country to independence from Pakistan in 1971 following a nine-month war helped by India and was its first president.

"Zia's BNP...follows the inclinations of the military governments which overthrew Mujibur and poses an exclusivist Bangladeshi nationalism against India," the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in a recent report.

Indian analysts, noting the BNP's links with Islamic parties, say New Delhi's muted protest over the border incidents reflected its anxiety not to hurt Hasina's electoral chances.

"...the presence of a right-wing government, supported by extremist religious groups, could result in Bangladesh becoming a base for launching militant activity in the country's strife-torn northeast," The Hindu said in an article at the weekend.

It said that one of the theories New Delhi was working on was that last week's border adventure was in some way a retaliation by Pakistani intelligence for the recent expulsion of a Pakistani diplomat from Nepal after explosives were seized from his house.

India accuses Pakistan of using Nepal and its open border for anti-India activities, a charge Islamabad denies.

"Everyone is clear that the ISI has been using Bangladeshi military elements, or at least some of them, for its operations," said Brahma Chellaney, an analyst at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. "The Bangladesh Rifles is one organization the ISI has penetrated most."

India also alleges that the ISI supports guerrilla groups in its northeastern states, particularly Assam, where on some days separatist violence claims more lives than the decade-old rebellion against Indian rule in Kashmir.

The tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, wedged between China and India, has warned several times recently that it might take military action against Indian rebel groups which have set up camps along its thickly forested border with Assam.

Aside from problems over localized conflicts, India is often accused of bullying its densely populated and impoverished neighbors in disputes over sharing river water, illegal immigration and trade.

"Some of the difficulties are aggravated by the neighbors' lack of stability and development," said Jasjit Singh of India's Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses. "But they are not problems that overwhelm Indian policy or undercut its security."